Dr Charles Butcher

Charles2014Dr Butcher is a Lecturer at the National Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies and Coordinator of the Masters Program.

Dr Butcher received his PhD from the University of Sydney in 2011. His thesis examined the relationship between small arms and fighting over economic resources in African civil wars from 1960-2008. His present research focuses on the onset and dynamics of civil resistance movements, group participation in violent and nonviolent conflict, genocide forecasting and pre-colonial state systems.

Emailcharles.butcher@otago.ac.nz                                                                                                                                                                       Phone 643 479 7681


Journal Articles

Butcher, Charles and Ryan Griffiths. (2015) Alternative international systems? System structure and violent conflict in nineteenth-century West Africa, Southeast Asia, and South Asia. Review of International Studies. Published online before print: February 2 2015 (http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9544468&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0260210514000436)

Butcher, Charles. (2014) 'Capital punishment': Bargaining and the geography of civil war. Journal of Peace Research. Published online before print: November 26 2014 (http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/early/2014/11/24/0022343314552717.abstract)

Butcher, Charles and Isak Svensson. (2014) Manufacturing Dissent? Modernization and the Onset of Major Nonviolent Resistance Campaigns. Journal of Conflict Resolution. Published online before print: July 18 2014 (http://jcr.sagepub.com/content/early/2014/07/17/0022002714541843.abstract).

Sutton, Jonathan., Charles Butcher and Isak Svensson. (2014) Explaining Political Jujitsu: Institution Building and the Outcomes of Severe Violence against Unarmed Protestors. Journal of Peace Research. 51(5): 559-573

Goldsmith, Benjamin, Charles Butcher, Dimitri Semenovich and Arcot Sowmya. (2013) Forecasting the Onset of Genocide and Politicide: Annual Out-of-Sample Forecasts on a Global Dataset, 1988-2003. Journal of Peace Research, 50(4): 437-452

Griffiths, Ryan and Charles Butcher. (2013) Introducing the International System(s) Dataset (ISD), 1816-2012. International Interactions. 39(5): 748-768.

Working Papers and Conference Proceedings

Butcher, Charles and Isak Svensson (2014) "To Arms or To the Streets? Explaining the Choice of Religious Groups between Nonviolent and Violent Insurrection Strategies". Paper Presented at the 110th Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC: August 28-31.

Charles Butcher, Elvira Bobekova, John Gray and Liesel Mitchell (2014) Striking it Free? Labor Organizations and the Success of Civil Resistance Campaigns. Paper Presented at the Workshop on “Actors, Strategies and Tactics in Contentious Direct Action”, Peace Research Institute, Oslo May 8-9.

Benjamin Goldsmith and Charles Butcher (2014) Elections and Political Instability: Ballots to Bullets, Voting to Violence? (June 3, 2012). Paper Presented at the 3rd Annual Meeting of the Australian Society for Quantitative Political Science, Sydney, December 2014. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2074874 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2074874

Butcher, C. (2012) Known Knowns and Known Unknowns: Ambiguity Aversion and Foreign Military Intervention (November 10, 2010). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2028819 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2028819

PhD Thesis

Butcher, C. (2012). Capital Punishment: How Economic Geography Shapes Low-Capability Warfare (PhD). University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.


Butcher, C. Goldsmith, B. Semenovich, D and Sowmya A. (2012) Understanding and Forecasting Political Instability and Genocide. Policy Report for the Atrocity Forecasting Project. Available from http://sydney.edu.au/arts/research/atrocity_forecasting/downloads/docs/GenocideForecastingReportGlobal_2012afp.pdf

Butcher, C. Goldsmith, B. Semenovich, D and Sowmya A. (2012) Political Instability and Genocide in the Asia-Pacific: Risks and Forecasts. Policy Report for the Atrocity Forecasting Project. Available from: http://sydney.edu.au/arts/research/atrocity_forecasting/downloads/docs/GenocideForecastingReportAsia_2012afp.pdf

Butcher, C. (2012). Forecasting Genocide. E-international Relations. June 2, 2012. Available from: http://www.e-ir.info/2012/06/02/forecasting-genocide/


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