Dr Charles Butcher
Dr Butcher is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the National Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies.
Dr Butcher received his PhD from the University of Sydney in 2011. His thesis examined the relationship between small arms and fighting over economic resources in African civil wars from 1960-2008. His present research focuses on African security, the spatial dynamics of war and violence against civilians, the stability of rebel organizations and peace agreements, genocide forecasting and early warning, foreign military intervention in civil wars, elections and political violence and pre-colonial state-systems.
Emailcharles.firstname.lastname@example.org Phone 643 479 7681
Goldsmith, B. Butcher, C. Semenovich, D and Sowmya A. (2013) Forecasting the Onset of Genocide and Politicide: Annual Out-of-Sample Forecasts on a Global Dataset, 1988-2003. Journal of Peace Research (forthcoming)
Griffiths, R and Butcher, C. (2013) Introducing the International System(s) Dataset (ISD), 1816-2012. International Interactions (forthcoming).
Butcher, C. (2012) Military Strategy and the Offense-Defense Balance in Symmetric Civil Wars (under review). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2028817 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2028817
Goldsmith, B., Butcher, C. Semenovich, D. and Sowmya, A. (2012) Elections and Political Instability: Ballots to Bullets, Voting to Violence? (June 3, 2012). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2074874 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2074874
Butcher, C. (2012) Known Knowns and Known Unknowns: Ambiguity Aversion and Foreign Military Intervention (November 10, 2010). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2028819 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2028819
Butcher, C. (2011). Capital Punishment: How Economic Geography Shapes Low-Capability Warfare (PhD). University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Butcher, C. Goldsmith, B. Semenovich, D and Sowmya A. (2012) Understanding and Forecasting Political Instability and Genocide. Policy Report for the Atrocity Forecasting Project. Available from http://sydney.edu.au/arts/research/atrocity_forecasting/downloads/docs/GenocideForecastingReportGlobal_2012afp.pdf
Butcher, C. Goldsmith, B. Semenovich, D and Sowmya A. (2012) Political Instability and Genocide in the Asia-Pacific: Risks and Forecasts. Policy Report for the Atrocity Forecasting Project. Available from: http://sydney.edu.au/arts/research/atrocity_forecasting/downloads/docs/GenocideForecastingReportAsia_2012afp.pdf
Butcher, C. (2012). Forecasting Genocide. E-international Relations. June 2, 2012. Available from: http://www.e-ir.info/2012/06/02/forecasting-genocide/
Butcher C. (2012) Manufacturing Dissent? The Economics of Major Nonviolent Protest Campaigns. New Zealand Political Studies Association Conference, Wellington, November 2012.
Butcher C. and Griffiths, R. (2012) Mapping the International System(s) of the 19th and 20th Centuries: A Contribution to Existing Datasets on Sovereign States. Oceanic Conference on International Studies (OCIS), University of Sydney, July 2012.
Butcher, C. (2011). Arms Transfers, Revenue Sources and the Rise of Fighting in Africa’s Capitals. Conference on Armed Forces and African Societies, University of Yaounde II, Cameroon, 18-19 January 2011
Butcher C. (2009). Personal Space: Explaining Military Intervention in African Civil Wars. Third Australasian Conference on the Economics and Politics of War and Peace, University of Sydney, June 2009
Butcher C. (2007) A History for the Future of Sovereignty: Sovereignty-Building in the ‘Arc of Instability’. Asia Pacific Week, The Australian National University, Canberra, January 2007