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Dr Charles Butcher

Charles2014Dr Butcher is a Lecturer at the National Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies and Coordinator of the Masters Program.

Dr Butcher received his PhD from the University of Sydney in 2011. His thesis examined the relationship between small arms and fighting over economic resources in African civil wars from 1960-2008. His present research focuses on the onset and dynamics of civil resistance movements, group participation in violent and nonviolent conflict, genocide forecasting and pre-colonial state systems.

Emailcharles.butcher@otago.ac.nz                                                                                                                                                                       Phone 643 479 7681

Publications

Journal Articles

Butcher, Charles and Ryan Griffiths. (2015) Alternative international systems? System structure and violent conflict in nineteenth-century West Africa, Southeast Asia, and South Asia. Review of International Studies. Published online before print: February 2 2015 (http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9544468&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0260210514000436)

Butcher, Charles. (2014) 'Capital punishment': Bargaining and the geography of civil war. Journal of Peace Research. Published online before print: November 26 2014 (http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/early/2014/11/24/0022343314552717.abstract)

Butcher, Charles and Isak Svensson. (2014) Manufacturing Dissent? Modernization and the Onset of Major Nonviolent Resistance Campaigns. Journal of Conflict Resolution. Published online before print: July 18 2014 (http://jcr.sagepub.com/content/early/2014/07/17/0022002714541843.abstract).

Sutton, Jonathan., Charles Butcher and Isak Svensson. (2014) Explaining Political Jujitsu: Institution Building and the Outcomes of Severe Violence against Unarmed Protestors. Journal of Peace Research. 51(5): 559-573

Goldsmith, Benjamin, Charles Butcher, Dimitri Semenovich and Arcot Sowmya. (2013) Forecasting the Onset of Genocide and Politicide: Annual Out-of-Sample Forecasts on a Global Dataset, 1988-2003. Journal of Peace Research, 50(4): 437-452

Griffiths, Ryan and Charles Butcher. (2013) Introducing the International System(s) Dataset (ISD), 1816-2012. International Interactions. 39(5): 748-768.

Working Papers and Conference Proceedings

Butcher, Charles and Isak Svensson (2014) "To Arms or To the Streets? Explaining the Choice of Religious Groups between Nonviolent and Violent Insurrection Strategies". Paper Presented at the 110th Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC: August 28-31.

Charles Butcher, Elvira Bobekova, John Gray and Liesel Mitchell (2014) Striking it Free? Labor Organizations and the Success of Civil Resistance Campaigns. Paper Presented at the Workshop on “Actors, Strategies and Tactics in Contentious Direct Action”, Peace Research Institute, Oslo May 8-9.

Benjamin Goldsmith and Charles Butcher (2014) Elections and Political Instability: Ballots to Bullets, Voting to Violence? (June 3, 2012). Paper Presented at the 3rd Annual Meeting of the Australian Society for Quantitative Political Science, Sydney, December 2014. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2074874 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2074874

Butcher, C. (2012) Known Knowns and Known Unknowns: Ambiguity Aversion and Foreign Military Intervention (November 10, 2010). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2028819 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2028819

PhD Thesis

Butcher, C. (2012). Capital Punishment: How Economic Geography Shapes Low-Capability Warfare (PhD). University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.

Other

Butcher, C. Goldsmith, B. Semenovich, D and Sowmya A. (2012) Understanding and Forecasting Political Instability and Genocide. Policy Report for the Atrocity Forecasting Project. Available from http://sydney.edu.au/arts/research/atrocity_forecasting/downloads/docs/GenocideForecastingReportGlobal_2012afp.pdf

Butcher, C. Goldsmith, B. Semenovich, D and Sowmya A. (2012) Political Instability and Genocide in the Asia-Pacific: Risks and Forecasts. Policy Report for the Atrocity Forecasting Project. Available from: http://sydney.edu.au/arts/research/atrocity_forecasting/downloads/docs/GenocideForecastingReportAsia_2012afp.pdf

Butcher, C. (2012). Forecasting Genocide. E-international Relations. June 2, 2012. Available from: http://www.e-ir.info/2012/06/02/forecasting-genocide/

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Publications

Butcher, C., & Svensson, I. (2016). Manufacturing dissent: Modernization and the onset of major nonviolent resistance campaigns. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 60(2), 311-339. doi: 10.1177/0022002714541843

Butcher, C., & Griffiths, R. (2015). Alternative international systems? System structure and violent conflict in nineteenth-century West Africa, Southeast Asia, and South Asia. Review of International Studies, 41(4), 715-737. doi: 10.1017/S0260210514000436

Butcher, C. (2015). 'Capital punishment': Bargaining and the geography of civil war. Journal of Peace Research, 52(2), 171-186. doi: 10.1177/0022343314552717

Butcher, C., Gray, J. L., & Bobekova, E. (2015, February). Moral and economic leverage? The participation of labor and religious organizations and the success of nonviolent campaigns, 1900-2013. Verbal presentation at the 56th International Studies Association (ISA) Annual Convention: Global IR and Regional Worlds, New Orleans, USA.

Butcher, C., & Goldsmith, B. E. (2015, February). Elections and political instability: Ballots to bullets, voting to violence? Verbal presentation at the 56th International Studies Association (ISA) Annual Convention: Global IR and Regional Worlds, New Orleans, USA.

Journal - Research Article

Butcher, C., & Svensson, I. (2016). Manufacturing dissent: Modernization and the onset of major nonviolent resistance campaigns. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 60(2), 311-339. doi: 10.1177/0022002714541843

Butcher, C., & Griffiths, R. (2015). Alternative international systems? System structure and violent conflict in nineteenth-century West Africa, Southeast Asia, and South Asia. Review of International Studies, 41(4), 715-737. doi: 10.1017/S0260210514000436

Butcher, C. (2015). 'Capital punishment': Bargaining and the geography of civil war. Journal of Peace Research, 52(2), 171-186. doi: 10.1177/0022343314552717

Sutton, J., Butcher, C. R., & Svensson, I. (2014). Explaining political jiu-jitsu: Institution-building and the outcomes of regime violence against unarmed protests. Journal of Peace Research, 51(5), 559-573. doi: 10.1177/0022343314531004

Goldsmith, B. E., Butcher, C. R., Semenovich, D., & Sowmya, A. (2013). Forecasting the onset of genocide and politicide: Annual out-of-sample forecasts on a global dataset, 1988-2003. Journal of Peace Research, 50(4), 437-452. doi: 10.1177/0022343313484167

Griffiths, R. D., & Butcher, C. R. (2013). Introducing the International System(s) Dataset (ISD), 1816–2011. International Interactions, 39(5), 748-768. doi: 10.1080/03050629.2013.834259

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Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Abstract

Butcher, C., & Goldsmith, B. (2014). Elections and political instability: Ballots to bullets, voting to violence? Proceedings of the New Zealand Political Studies Association (NZPSA) Conference., (pp. 40). Retrieved from http://nzpsa.com/past-nzpsa-conferences/

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Conference Contribution - Verbal presentation and other Conference outputs

Butcher, C., Gray, J. L., & Bobekova, E. (2015, February). Moral and economic leverage? The participation of labor and religious organizations and the success of nonviolent campaigns, 1900-2013. Verbal presentation at the 56th International Studies Association (ISA) Annual Convention: Global IR and Regional Worlds, New Orleans, USA.

Butcher, C., & Goldsmith, B. E. (2015, February). Elections and political instability: Ballots to bullets, voting to violence? Verbal presentation at the 56th International Studies Association (ISA) Annual Convention: Global IR and Regional Worlds, New Orleans, USA.

Butcher, C., Bobekova, E., Gray, J., & Mitchell, L. (2013, December). Mobilization for violence and nonviolence: Network structure and participation in insurgency, 1989-2006. Verbal presentation at the New Zealand Political Studies Association (NZPSA) Conference, Christchurch, New Zealand.

Butcher, C. (2012, November). African springs? Aid and the economics of nonviolent civil society led protest movements. Verbal presentation at the New Zealand Political Studies Association (NZPSA) Conference, Wellington, New Zealand.

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Working Paper; Discussion Paper; Technical Report

Butcher, C. R. (2013). Military strategy and the offense-defense balance in symmetric civil wars. Social Science Research Network. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2028817

More publications...