Dr Charles Butcher

Photo of Charles Butcher

Dr Butcher is a Lecturer at the National Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies and Coordinator of the Masters Program.

Dr Butcher received his PhD from the University of Sydney in 2011. His thesis examined the relationship between small arms and fighting over economic resources in African civil wars from 1960-2008. His present research focuses on the onset and dynamics of civil resistance movements, group participation in violent and nonviolent conflict, genocide forecasting and pre-colonial state systems.

Emailcharles.butcher@otago.ac.nz                                                                                                                                                                       Phone 643 479 7681


Journal Articles

Goldsmith, B. Butcher, C. Semenovich, D and Sowmya A. (2013) Forecasting the Onset of Genocide and Politicide: Annual Out-of-Sample Forecasts on a Global Dataset, 1988-2003. Journal of Peace Research, 50(4): 437-452

Griffiths, R and Butcher, C. (2013) Introducing the International System(s) Dataset (ISD), 1816-2012. International Interactions. 39(5): 748-768.

Sutton, J., Butcher, C and Svensson. (2014) Explaining Political Jujitsu: Institution Building and the Outcomes of Severe Violence against Unarmed Protestors. (forthcoming) Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2285248

Under Review

Butcher C. and Svensson, I. (2013) Manufacturing Dissent? Modernization and the Onset of Major Nonviolent Resistance Campaigns. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2285227

Butcher C. (2013) “Capital Punishment”: Bargaining and the Geography of Civil War".
Butcher C and Griffiths, R. (2013) Alternative International Systems? System Structure and Violent Conflict in West Africa, Southeast Asia, and South Asia in the 19th Century.

Working Papers and Conference Proceedings

Charles R. Butcher, Elvira Bobekova, John Gray and Liesel Mitchell (2013) Mobilization for Violence and Nonviolence: Network Structure and Participation in Insurgency, 1989-2006. Paper Presented at the New Zealand Political Studies Association, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, 2-3 December

Goldsmith, B., Butcher, C. Semenovich, D. and Sowmya, A. (2012) Elections and Political Instability: Ballots to Bullets, Voting to Violence? (June 3, 2012). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2074874 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2074874

Butcher, C. (2012) Known Knowns and Known Unknowns: Ambiguity Aversion and Foreign Military Intervention (November 10, 2010). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2028819 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2028819

PhD Thesis

Butcher, C. (2011). Capital Punishment: How Economic Geography Shapes Low-Capability Warfare (PhD). University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.


Butcher, C. Goldsmith, B. Semenovich, D and Sowmya A. (2012) Understanding and Forecasting Political Instability and Genocide. Policy Report for the Atrocity Forecasting Project. Available from http://sydney.edu.au/arts/research/atrocity_forecasting/downloads/docs/GenocideForecastingReportGlobal_2012afp.pdf

Butcher, C. Goldsmith, B. Semenovich, D and Sowmya A. (2012) Political Instability and Genocide in the Asia-Pacific: Risks and Forecasts. Policy Report for the Atrocity Forecasting Project. Available from: http://sydney.edu.au/arts/research/atrocity_forecasting/downloads/docs/GenocideForecastingReportAsia_2012afp.pdf

Butcher, C. (2012). Forecasting Genocide. E-international Relations. June 2, 2012. Available from: http://www.e-ir.info/2012/06/02/forecasting-genocide/


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