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Patrick Graham

Honorary Senior Research Fellow

MSc, PhD

Research Interests

  • Bayesian methods
  • Causal inference
  • Population health: measurement and dynamics
  • Confidentiality
  • Institutional Performance

Selected Projects

  • 2006 [HRC] Equity, variation and convergence in surgeons' clinical judgements of priority
  • 2006 [HRC] Improving Performance in New Zealand Health Care: Hospital Outcomes
  • 2006 [Statistics New Zealand] Improved Methodology for Constructing, Evaluating and Analysing synthetic datasets.
  • 2005 [Statistics New Zealand] Model-Based Synthetic Data-files
  • 2005 [CMRF] Cytomegalovirus, Epstein-Barr virus and risk of breast cancer. $30,128 over 1 year (Principal Investigator: A. Richardson)
  • 2004 [University of Otago] Hierarchical Bayesian Approaches to Smoothing and Confidentialising Census and Survey Data
  • 2003 [HRC] Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery - evaluation of the validity of the prioritisation score and the impact of waiting. (Co-Principal Investigators: Mary Seddon and Rod Jackson)

Student Supervision

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Publications

Darlow, B. A., Graham, P. J., & Rojas-Reyes, M. X. (2016). Vitamin A supplementation to prevent mortality and short- and long-term morbidity in very low birth weight infants (Review). Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 8, CD000501. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD000501.pub4

Davis, P., Milne, B., Parker, K., Hider, P., Lay-Yee, R., Cumming, J., & Graham, P. (2013). Efficiency, effectiveness, equity (E3): Evaluating hospital performance in three dimensions. Health Policy, 112(1-2), 19-27. doi: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2013.02.008

Graham, P., Martin, G., Fraser, J., Cumming, J., Williams, H., Davidson, A., … Roake, J., & van Rij, A. (2012). Equity of access and variation in general surgeons' clinical judgements of patient priority. International Journal of Person Centered Medicine, 2(4), 883-898. doi: 10.5750/ijpcm.v2i4.298

Raymont, A., Graham, P., Hider, P. N., Finlayson, M. P., Fraser, J., & Cumming, J. M. (2012). Variation in the adoption of patient safety practices among New Zealand district health boards. Australian Health Review, 36(2), 163-168. doi: 10.1071/ah10972

Graham, P., Hider, P., Cumming, J., Raymont, A., & Finlayson, M. (2012). Variation in New Zealand hospital outcomes: Combining hierarchical Bayesian modeling and propensity score methods for hospital performance comparisons. Health Services & Outcomes Research Methodology, 12(1), 1-28. doi: 10.1007/s10742-012-0079-9

Chapter in Book - Research

Davis, P. B., Mathers, C., & Graham, P. (2003). Health expectancy in Australia and New Zealand. In J. M. Robine, C. Jaggar, C. D. Mathers, E. M. Crimmins & R. M. Suzman (Eds.), Determining health expectancies. (pp. 391-408). England: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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Journal - Research Article

Darlow, B. A., Graham, P. J., & Rojas-Reyes, M. X. (2016). Vitamin A supplementation to prevent mortality and short- and long-term morbidity in very low birth weight infants (Review). Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 8, CD000501. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD000501.pub4

Davis, P., Milne, B., Parker, K., Hider, P., Lay-Yee, R., Cumming, J., & Graham, P. (2013). Efficiency, effectiveness, equity (E3): Evaluating hospital performance in three dimensions. Health Policy, 112(1-2), 19-27. doi: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2013.02.008

Graham, P., Martin, G., Fraser, J., Cumming, J., Williams, H., Davidson, A., … Roake, J., & van Rij, A. (2012). Equity of access and variation in general surgeons' clinical judgements of patient priority. International Journal of Person Centered Medicine, 2(4), 883-898. doi: 10.5750/ijpcm.v2i4.298

Graham, P., Hider, P., Cumming, J., Raymont, A., & Finlayson, M. (2012). Variation in New Zealand hospital outcomes: Combining hierarchical Bayesian modeling and propensity score methods for hospital performance comparisons. Health Services & Outcomes Research Methodology, 12(1), 1-28. doi: 10.1007/s10742-012-0079-9

Raymont, A., Graham, P., Hider, P. N., Finlayson, M. P., Fraser, J., & Cumming, J. M. (2012). Variation in the adoption of patient safety practices among New Zealand district health boards. Australian Health Review, 36(2), 163-168. doi: 10.1071/ah10972

Quan, H., Li, B., Couris, C. M., Fushimi, K., Graham, P., Hider, P., … Sundararajan, V. (2011). Updating and validating the Charlson comorbidity index and score for risk adjustment in hospital discharge abstracts using data from 6 countries. American Journal of Epidemiology, 173(6), 676-682. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwq433

Darlow, B. A., & Graham, P. J. (2011). Vitamin A supplementation to prevent mortality and short- and long-term morbidity in very low birthweight infants (Review). Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 10, CD000501. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD000501.pub3

Cox, B., Richardson, A., Graham, P., Gislefoss, R. E., Jellum, E., & Rollag, H. (2010). Breast cancer, cytomegalovirus and Epstein-Barr virus: A nested case-control study. British Journal of Cancer, 102, 1665-1669. doi: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6605675

Graham, P., Young, J., & Penny, R. (2009). Multiply imputed synthetic data: Evaluation of hierarchical Bayesian imputation models. Journal of Official Statistics, 25(2), 245-268.

Graham, P., Rodnyanskiy, L., & Henley, L. (2009). Confidentialising microdata using multiple imputation: Development and evaluation of a non-parametric hierarchical Bayesian imputation model for numerical data. Official Statistics Research Series, 5. Retrieved from http://www.statisphere.govt.nz/official-statistics-research.aspx

Rumball-Smith, J., Hider, P., & Graham, P. (2009). The readmission rate as an indicator of the quality of elective surgical inpatient care for the elderly in New Zealand. New Zealand Medical Journal, 122(1289). Retrieved from http://journal.nzma.org.nz/journal/122-1289/3461/content.pdf

Richardson, K., Blakely, T., Young, J., Graham, P., & Tobias, M. (2009). Do ethnic and socio-economic inequalities in mortality vary by region in New Zealand? An application of hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Social Science & Medicine, 69(8), 1252-1260. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2009.07.036

Young, J., Graham, P., & Penny, R. (2009). Using Bayesian networks to create synthetic data. Journal of Official Statistics, 25(4), 549-567.

Blakely, T., Richardson, K., Young, J., Graham, P., Tobias, M., Callister, P., … Atkinson, J. (2009). Does mortality vary between Pacific groups? Estimating Samoan, Cook Island Mäori, Tongan and Niuean mortality rates using hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Official Statistics Research Series, 5. Retrieved from http://www.statisphere.govt.nz/official-statistics-research.aspx

Gee, P., Gilbert, M., Richardson, S., Moore, G., Paterson, S., & Graham, P. (2008). Toxicity from the recreational use of 1-benzylpiperazine. Clinical Toxicology, 46(9), 802-807. doi: 10.1080/15563650802307602

Graham, P. (2008). Intelligent smoothing using hierarchical Bayesian models. Epidemiology, 19(3), 493-495. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e31816b7859

Anderson, N. G., Notley, E., Graham, P., & McEwing, R. (2008). Reproducibility of sonographic assessment of fetal liver length in diabetic pregnancies. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology, 31(5), 529-534. doi: 10.1002/uog.5298

Graham, P., Young, J., & Penny, R. (2008). Methods for creating synthetic data. Official Statistics Research Series, 3. Retrieved from http://www.statisphere.govt.nz/official-statistics-research/series/vol-3.htm

Graham, P., & Penny, R. (2007). Multiply imputed synthetic data files. Official Statistics Research Series, 1. Retrieved from http://www.statisphere.govt.nz/official-statistics-research/series/vol-1.htm

Darlow, B. A., & Graham, P. J. (2007). Vitamin A supplementation to prevent mortality and short and long-term morbidity in very low birthweight infants (Review). Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 4, CD000501. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD000501.pub2

Young, J., Graham, P., & Blakely, T. (2006). Modeling the relation between socioeconomic status and mortality in a mixture of majority and minority ethnic groups. American Journal of Epidemiology, 164(3), 282-291.

Darlow, B. A., Buss, H., McGill, F., Fletcher, L., Graham, P., & Winterbourn, C. C. (2005). Vitamin C supplementation in very preterm infants: A randomised controlled trial. Archives of Disease in Childhood: Fetal & Neonatal Edition, 90(2), F117-F122. doi: 10.1136/adc.2004.056440

Graham, P. (2005). Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of social variation in the age dependence of disability prevalence. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 47(4), 401-424. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-842X.2005.00405.x

Graham, P., Blakely, T., Davis, P., Sporle, A., & Pearce, N. (2004). Compression, expansion, or dynamic equilibrium? The evolution of health expectancy in New Zealand. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 58, 659-666.

Richardson, A., Graham, P., Brown, T., Smale, P., & Cox, B. (2004). Breast cancer detection rates, and standardised detection ratios for prevalence screening in the New Zealand breast cancer screening programme. Journal of Medical Screening, 11(2), 65-69.

Graham, P. J. (2004). A note on the use of sensitivity analysis to explore the potential impact of declining institutional care utilisation on disability prevalence. Population Health Metrics, 2(3). Retrieved from http://www.pophealthmetrics.com/content/2/1/3

Richards, D. A., Toop, L. J., & Graham, P. J. (2003). Do clinical practice education groups result in sustained change in GP prescribing? Family Practice, 20(2), 199-206.

Hossain, M. M., Graham, P. J., Gower, S. E., & Davis, P. B. (2003). Hierarchical generalised linear models with time-dependent clustering: Assessing the effect of health sector reform on patient outcomes in New Zealand. Health Services & Outcomes Research Methodology, 4, 169-186.

Florkowski, C. M., Scott, R. S., Graham, P. J., Han, D. Y., & Moir, C. L. (2003). Cause-specific and total mortality in the Canterbury (New Zealand) insulin-treated Diabetic Registry population: a 15-year follow-up study. Diabetic Medicine, 20(3), 191-197.

Khan, N., Davis, P. B., Wilkinson, T. J., Sellman, J. D., & Graham, P. J. (2002). Drinking patterns among older people in the community: Hidden from medical attention? New Zealand Medical Journal, 115, 72-75.

Abel, G. M., Plumridge, E. W., & Graham, P. J. (2002). Peers, networks or relationships: Strategies for understanding social dynamics as determinants of smoking behaviour. Drugs, 9(4), 325-338.

Weir, R., Williams, D., & Graham, P. J. (2001). Notification of gastrointestinal illness by Canterbury and West Coast general practitioners. New Zealand Medical Journal, 114, 307-309.

Khan, N., Wilkinson, T. J., Sellman, J. D., & Graham, P. J. (2001). Patterns of alcohol use and misuse among elderly rest home residents in Christchurch. New Zealand Medical Journal, 114, 58-61.

Florkowski, C. M., Scott, R. S., Coope, P. A., Graham, P. J., & Moir, C. L. (2001). Age at diagnosis, glycaemic control and the development of retinopathy in a population-based cohort of type 1 diabetic subjects in Canterbury, New Zealand. Diabetes Research & Clinical Practice, 52, 125-131.

Graham, P. J. (2000). Bayesian inference for a generalized population attributable fraction: The impact of early vitamin A levels on chronic lung disease in very low birthweight infants. Statistics in Medicine, 19, 937-956.

Graham, P. J., & Jackson, R. (2000). A comparison of primary and proxy respondent reports of habitual physical activity, using k statistics and log-linear models. Journal of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, 5(4), 255-265.

Darlow, B. A., Winterbourn, C. C., Inder, T. E., Graham, P. J., Harding, J. E., Weston, P. J., Austin, N. C., Elder, D. E., Mogridge, N., Buss, I. H., & Sluis, K. B. (2000). The effect of selenium supplementation on outcome in very low birth weight infants: A randomized controlled trial. Journal of Pediatrics, 136, 473-480.

Richardson, A. K., Cox, B., & Graham, P. J. (1999). Should there be a breast cancer risk chart for New Zealand women? New Zealand Medical Journal, 112, 129-130.

Davis, P. B., Graham, P. J., & Pearce, N. E. (1999). Health expectancy in New Zealand, 1981-1991: social variations and trends in a period of rapid social and economic change. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 53, 519-527.

Graham, P. J., & Bull, B. (1998). Approximate standard errors and confidence intervals for indices of positive and negative agreement. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 51, 763-771.

Florkowski, C. M., Scott, R. S., Moir, C. L., & Graham, P. J. (1998). Clinical and biochemical outcomes of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Canterbury, New Zealand: a 6-year cohort study. Diabetes Research & Clinical Practice, 40(3), 167-173.

Florkowski, C. M., Scott, R. S., Moir, C. L., & Graham, P. J. (1998). Lipid but not glycaemic parameters predict total mortality from type 2 diabetes mellitus in Canterbury, New Zealand. Diabetic Medicine, 15(5), 386-392.

Hickling, K. G., Wright, T., Laubscher, K., Town, G. I., Tie, A., Graham, P. J., … A'Court, G. (1998). Extreme hypoventilation reduces ventilator induced lung injury during ventilation with low PEEP in saline lavaged rabbits. Critical Care Medicine, 26(10), 1690-1697.

Inder, T. E., Graham, P. J., Winterbourn, C. C., Austin, N. C., & Darlow, B. A. (1998). Plasma vitamin A levels in the very low birthweight infant - relationship to respiratory outcome. Early Human Development, 52, 155-168.

Epton, M. J., Martin, I. R., Graham, P. J., Healy, P. E., Smith, H., Rengasamy, B., … Town, G. I. (1997). Climate and aeroallergen levels in asthma: a 12 month prospective study. Thorax, 52(6), 528-534.

Inder, T. E., Clemett, R. S., Austin, N. C., Graham, P. J., & Darlow, B. A. (1997). High iron status in very low birth weight infants is associated with an increased risk of retinopathy of prematurity. Journal of Pediatrics, 131(4), 541-544.

Inder, T. E., Darlow, B. A., Sluis, K. B. M., Winterbourn, C. C., Graham, P. J. M., Sanderson, K. J., & Taylor, B. J. (1996). The correction of elevated levels of an index of lipid peroxidation (MDA-TBA) with adverse outcome in the very low birthweight infant. Acta Paediatrica, 85, 1116-1122.

Hickling, K. G., Town, G. I., Epton, M., Neill, A., Tie, A., Whitehead, M., Graham, P., … Darlow, B. A., & Laubscher, K. (1996). Pressure limited ventilation with permisive hypercapnia and minimum PEEP in saline lavaged rabbits allows progressive improvement in oxygenation, but does not avoid ventilator induced lung injury. Intensive Care Medicine, 22(12), 1445-1452.

Town, G. I., Hodges, I. D., Wilkie, A. T., Toop, L. J., Graham, P. J. M., & Drennan, D. J. (1995). A community promotion of asthma self management in New Zealand. Patient Education & Counseling, 26, 219-224.

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