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Patrick Graham

Honorary Senior Research Fellow

MSc, PhD

Research Interests

  • Bayesian methods
  • Causal inference
  • Population health: measurement and dynamics
  • Confidentiality
  • Institutional Performance

Selected Projects

  • 2006 [HRC] Equity, variation and convergence in surgeons' clinical judgements of priority
  • 2006 [HRC] Improving Performance in New Zealand Health Care: Hospital Outcomes
  • 2006 [Statistics New Zealand] Improved Methodology for Constructing, Evaluating and Analysing synthetic datasets.
  • 2005 [Statistics New Zealand] Model-Based Synthetic Data-files
  • 2005 [CMRF] Cytomegalovirus, Epstein-Barr virus and risk of breast cancer. $30,128 over 1 year (Principal Investigator: A. Richardson)
  • 2004 [University of Otago] Hierarchical Bayesian Approaches to Smoothing and Confidentialising Census and Survey Data
  • 2003 [HRC] Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery - evaluation of the validity of the prioritisation score and the impact of waiting. (Co-Principal Investigators: Mary Seddon and Rod Jackson)

Student Supervision

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Publications

Darlow, B. A., Graham, P. J., & Rojas-Reyes, M. X. (2016). Vitamin A supplementation to prevent mortality and short- and long-term morbidity in very low birth weight infants (Review). Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 8, CD000501. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD000501.pub4

Graham, P. (2015). [Review of the book Bayesian methods in health economics]. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 57(3), 431-433. doi: 10.1111/anzs.12122

Davis, P., Milne, B., Parker, K., Hider, P., Lay-Yee, R., Cumming, J., & Graham, P. (2013). Efficiency, effectiveness, equity (E3): Evaluating hospital performance in three dimensions. Health Policy, 112(1-2), 19-27. doi: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2013.02.008

Graham, P., Martin, G., Fraser, J., Cumming, J., Williams, H., Davidson, A., … Roake, J., & van Rij, A. (2012). Equity of access and variation in general surgeons' clinical judgements of patient priority. International Journal of Person Centered Medicine, 2(4), 883-898. doi: 10.5750/ijpcm.v2i4.298

Graham, P., Hider, P., Cumming, J., Raymont, A., & Finlayson, M. (2012). Variation in New Zealand hospital outcomes: Combining hierarchical Bayesian modeling and propensity score methods for hospital performance comparisons. Health Services & Outcomes Research Methodology, 12(1), 1-28. doi: 10.1007/s10742-012-0079-9

Davis, P. B., Mathers, C., & Graham, P. (2003). Health expectancy in Australia and New Zealand. In J. M. Robine, C. Jaggar, C. D. Mathers, E. M. Crimmins & R. M. Suzman (Eds.), Determining health expectancies. (pp. 391-408). England: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Chapter in Book - Research

Darlow, B. A., Graham, P. J., & Rojas-Reyes, M. X. (2016). Vitamin A supplementation to prevent mortality and short- and long-term morbidity in very low birth weight infants (Review). Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 8, CD000501. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD000501.pub4

Journal - Research Article

Davis, P., Milne, B., Parker, K., Hider, P., Lay-Yee, R., Cumming, J., & Graham, P. (2013). Efficiency, effectiveness, equity (E3): Evaluating hospital performance in three dimensions. Health Policy, 112(1-2), 19-27. doi: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2013.02.008

Journal - Research Article

Graham, P., Hider, P., Cumming, J., Raymont, A., & Finlayson, M. (2012). Variation in New Zealand hospital outcomes: Combining hierarchical Bayesian modeling and propensity score methods for hospital performance comparisons. Health Services & Outcomes Research Methodology, 12(1), 1-28. doi: 10.1007/s10742-012-0079-9

Journal - Research Article

Graham, P., Martin, G., Fraser, J., Cumming, J., Williams, H., Davidson, A., … Roake, J., & van Rij, A. (2012). Equity of access and variation in general surgeons' clinical judgements of patient priority. International Journal of Person Centered Medicine, 2(4), 883-898. doi: 10.5750/ijpcm.v2i4.298

Journal - Research Article

Raymont, A., Graham, P., Hider, P. N., Finlayson, M. P., Fraser, J., & Cumming, J. M. (2012). Variation in the adoption of patient safety practices among New Zealand district health boards. Australian Health Review, 36(2), 163-168. doi: 10.1071/ah10972

Journal - Research Article

Darlow, B. A., & Graham, P. J. (2011). Vitamin A supplementation to prevent mortality and short- and long-term morbidity in very low birthweight infants (Review). Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 10, CD000501. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD000501.pub3

Journal - Research Article

Quan, H., Li, B., Couris, C. M., Fushimi, K., Graham, P., Hider, P., … Sundararajan, V. (2011). Updating and validating the Charlson comorbidity index and score for risk adjustment in hospital discharge abstracts using data from 6 countries. American Journal of Epidemiology, 173(6), 676-682. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwq433

Journal - Research Article

Cox, B., Richardson, A., Graham, P., Gislefoss, R. E., Jellum, E., & Rollag, H. (2010). Breast cancer, cytomegalovirus and Epstein-Barr virus: A nested case-control study. British Journal of Cancer, 102, 1665-1669. doi: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6605675

Journal - Research Article

Blakely, T., Richardson, K., Young, J., Graham, P., Tobias, M., Callister, P., … Atkinson, J. (2009). Does mortality vary between Pacific groups? Estimating Samoan, Cook Island Mäori, Tongan and Niuean mortality rates using hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Official Statistics Research Series, 5. Retrieved from http://www.statisphere.govt.nz/official-statistics-research.aspx

Journal - Research Article

Graham, P., Rodnyanskiy, L., & Henley, L. (2009). Confidentialising microdata using multiple imputation: Development and evaluation of a non-parametric hierarchical Bayesian imputation model for numerical data. Official Statistics Research Series, 5. Retrieved from http://www.statisphere.govt.nz/official-statistics-research.aspx

Journal - Research Article

Graham, P., Young, J., & Penny, R. (2009). Multiply imputed synthetic data: Evaluation of hierarchical Bayesian imputation models. Journal of Official Statistics, 25(2), 245-268.

Journal - Research Article

Richardson, K., Blakely, T., Young, J., Graham, P., & Tobias, M. (2009). Do ethnic and socio-economic inequalities in mortality vary by region in New Zealand? An application of hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Social Science & Medicine, 69(8), 1252-1260. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2009.07.036

Journal - Research Article

Rumball-Smith, J., Hider, P., & Graham, P. (2009). The readmission rate as an indicator of the quality of elective surgical inpatient care for the elderly in New Zealand. New Zealand Medical Journal, 122(1289). Retrieved from http://journal.nzma.org.nz/journal/122-1289/3461/content.pdf

Journal - Research Article

Young, J., Graham, P., & Penny, R. (2009). Using Bayesian networks to create synthetic data. Journal of Official Statistics, 25(4), 549-567.

Journal - Research Article

Anderson, N. G., Notley, E., Graham, P., & McEwing, R. (2008). Reproducibility of sonographic assessment of fetal liver length in diabetic pregnancies. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology, 31(5), 529-534. doi: 10.1002/uog.5298

Journal - Research Article

Gee, P., Gilbert, M., Richardson, S., Moore, G., Paterson, S., & Graham, P. (2008). Toxicity from the recreational use of 1-benzylpiperazine. Clinical Toxicology, 46(9), 802-807. doi: 10.1080/15563650802307602

Journal - Research Article

Graham, P. (2008). Intelligent smoothing using hierarchical Bayesian models. Epidemiology, 19(3), 493-495. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e31816b7859

Journal - Research Article

Graham, P., Young, J., & Penny, R. (2008). Methods for creating synthetic data. Official Statistics Research Series, 3. Retrieved from http://www.statisphere.govt.nz/official-statistics-research/series/vol-3.htm

Journal - Research Article

Darlow, B. A., & Graham, P. J. (2007). Vitamin A supplementation to prevent mortality and short and long-term morbidity in very low birthweight infants (Review). Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 4, CD000501. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD000501.pub2

Journal - Research Article

Graham, P., & Penny, R. (2007). Multiply imputed synthetic data files. Official Statistics Research Series, 1. Retrieved from http://www.statisphere.govt.nz/official-statistics-research/series/vol-1.htm

Journal - Research Article

Young, J., Graham, P., & Blakely, T. (2006). Modeling the relation between socioeconomic status and mortality in a mixture of majority and minority ethnic groups. American Journal of Epidemiology, 164(3), 282-291.

Journal - Research Article

Darlow, B. A., Buss, H., McGill, F., Fletcher, L., Graham, P., & Winterbourn, C. C. (2005). Vitamin C supplementation in very preterm infants: A randomised controlled trial. Archives of Disease in Childhood: Fetal & Neonatal Edition, 90(2), F117-F122. doi: 10.1136/adc.2004.056440

Journal - Research Article

Graham, P. (2005). Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of social variation in the age dependence of disability prevalence. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 47(4), 401-424. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-842X.2005.00405.x

Journal - Research Article

Graham, P. J. (2004). A note on the use of sensitivity analysis to explore the potential impact of declining institutional care utilisation on disability prevalence. Population Health Metrics, 2(3). Retrieved from http://www.pophealthmetrics.com/content/2/1/3

Journal - Research Article

Graham, P., Blakely, T., Davis, P., Sporle, A., & Pearce, N. (2004). Compression, expansion, or dynamic equilibrium? The evolution of health expectancy in New Zealand. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 58, 659-666.

Journal - Research Article

Richardson, A., Graham, P., Brown, T., Smale, P., & Cox, B. (2004). Breast cancer detection rates, and standardised detection ratios for prevalence screening in the New Zealand breast cancer screening programme. Journal of Medical Screening, 11(2), 65-69.

Journal - Research Article

Florkowski, C. M., Scott, R. S., Graham, P. J., Han, D. Y., & Moir, C. L. (2003). Cause-specific and total mortality in the Canterbury (New Zealand) insulin-treated Diabetic Registry population: a 15-year follow-up study. Diabetic Medicine, 20(3), 191-197.

Journal - Research Article

Hossain, M. M., Graham, P. J., Gower, S. E., & Davis, P. B. (2003). Hierarchical generalised linear models with time-dependent clustering: Assessing the effect of health sector reform on patient outcomes in New Zealand. Health Services & Outcomes Research Methodology, 4, 169-186.

Journal - Research Article

Richards, D. A., Toop, L. J., & Graham, P. J. (2003). Do clinical practice education groups result in sustained change in GP prescribing? Family Practice, 20(2), 199-206.

Journal - Research Article

Abel, G. M., Plumridge, E. W., & Graham, P. J. (2002). Peers, networks or relationships: Strategies for understanding social dynamics as determinants of smoking behaviour. Drugs, 9(4), 325-338.

Journal - Research Article

Khan, N., Davis, P. B., Wilkinson, T. J., Sellman, J. D., & Graham, P. J. (2002). Drinking patterns among older people in the community: Hidden from medical attention? New Zealand Medical Journal, 115, 72-75.

Journal - Research Article

Florkowski, C. M., Scott, R. S., Coope, P. A., Graham, P. J., & Moir, C. L. (2001). Age at diagnosis, glycaemic control and the development of retinopathy in a population-based cohort of type 1 diabetic subjects in Canterbury, New Zealand. Diabetes Research & Clinical Practice, 52, 125-131.

Journal - Research Article

Khan, N., Wilkinson, T. J., Sellman, J. D., & Graham, P. J. (2001). Patterns of alcohol use and misuse among elderly rest home residents in Christchurch. New Zealand Medical Journal, 114, 58-61.

Journal - Research Article

Weir, R., Williams, D., & Graham, P. J. (2001). Notification of gastrointestinal illness by Canterbury and West Coast general practitioners. New Zealand Medical Journal, 114, 307-309.

Journal - Research Article

Darlow, B. A., & Graham, P. J. (2000). Vitamin A supplementation for preventing morbidity and mortality in very low birthweight infants (Review). Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 2, CD000501. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD000501

Journal - Research Article

Darlow, B. A., Winterbourn, C. C., Inder, T. E., Graham, P. J., Harding, J. E., Weston, P. J., Austin, N. C., Elder, D. E., Mogridge, N., Buss, I. H., & Sluis, K. B. (2000). The effect of selenium supplementation on outcome in very low birth weight infants: A randomized controlled trial. Journal of Pediatrics, 136, 473-480.

Journal - Research Article

Graham, P. J. (2000). Bayesian inference for a generalized population attributable fraction: The impact of early vitamin A levels on chronic lung disease in very low birthweight infants. Statistics in Medicine, 19, 937-956.

Journal - Research Article

Graham, P. J., & Jackson, R. (2000). A comparison of primary and proxy respondent reports of habitual physical activity, using k statistics and log-linear models. Journal of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, 5(4), 255-265.

Journal - Research Article

Davis, P. B., Graham, P. J., & Pearce, N. E. (1999). Health expectancy in New Zealand, 1981-1991: social variations and trends in a period of rapid social and economic change. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 53, 519-527.

Journal - Research Article

Richardson, A. K., Cox, B., & Graham, P. J. (1999). Should there be a breast cancer risk chart for New Zealand women? New Zealand Medical Journal, 112, 129-130.

Journal - Research Article

Florkowski, C. M., Scott, R. S., Moir, C. L., & Graham, P. J. (1998). Clinical and biochemical outcomes of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Canterbury, New Zealand: a 6-year cohort study. Diabetes Research & Clinical Practice, 40(3), 167-173.

Journal - Research Article

Florkowski, C. M., Scott, R. S., Moir, C. L., & Graham, P. J. (1998). Lipid but not glycaemic parameters predict total mortality from type 2 diabetes mellitus in Canterbury, New Zealand. Diabetic Medicine, 15(5), 386-392.

Journal - Research Article

Graham, P. J., & Bull, B. (1998). Approximate standard errors and confidence intervals for indices of positive and negative agreement. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 51, 763-771.

Journal - Research Article

Hickling, K. G., Wright, T., Laubscher, K., Town, G. I., Tie, A., Graham, P. J., … A'Court, G. (1998). Extreme hypoventilation reduces ventilator induced lung injury during ventilation with low PEEP in saline lavaged rabbits. Critical Care Medicine, 26(10), 1690-1697.

Journal - Research Article

Inder, T. E., Graham, P. J., Winterbourn, C. C., Austin, N. C., & Darlow, B. A. (1998). Plasma vitamin A levels in the very low birthweight infant - relationship to respiratory outcome. Early Human Development, 52, 155-168.

Journal - Research Article

Epton, M. J., Martin, I. R., Graham, P. J., Healy, P. E., Smith, H., Rengasamy, B., … Town, G. I. (1997). Climate and aeroallergen levels in asthma: a 12 month prospective study. Thorax, 52(6), 528-534.

Journal - Research Article

Inder, T. E., Clemett, R. S., Austin, N. C., Graham, P. J., & Darlow, B. A. (1997). High iron status in very low birth weight infants is associated with an increased risk of retinopathy of prematurity. Journal of Pediatrics, 131(4), 541-544.

Journal - Research Article

Hickling, K. G., Town, G. I., Epton, M., Neill, A., Tie, A., Whitehead, M., Graham, P., … Darlow, B. A., & Laubscher, K. (1996). Pressure limited ventilation with permisive hypercapnia and minimum PEEP in saline lavaged rabbits allows progressive improvement in oxygenation, but does not avoid ventilator induced lung injury. Intensive Care Medicine, 22(12), 1445-1452.

Journal - Research Article

Inder, T. E., Darlow, B. A., Sluis, K. B. M., Winterbourn, C. C., Graham, P. J. M., Sanderson, K. J., & Taylor, B. J. (1996). The correction of elevated levels of an index of lipid peroxidation (MDA-TBA) with adverse outcome in the very low birthweight infant. Acta Paediatrica, 85, 1116-1122.

Journal - Research Article

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