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Professor Mark W. Stirling

Mark Stirling 2019 imageChair of Earthquake Science

BSc, MSc (University of Otago), PhD (University of Nevada Reno)

  • Multidisciplinary seismic hazard modelling
  • Seismotectonics
  • Earthquake statistics
  • Tectonic geomorphology

Email mark.stirling@otago.ac.nz
Google Scholar: Mark Stirling
ORCID orcid.org/0000-0002-2562-4675
Tel +64 3 470 3539

Research interests

Mark is a seismologist with a multidisciplinary background in geology and seismology. He specialises in the integration of geological, seismological and geodetic datasets for seismotectonic and seismic hazard modelling. He moved to his present position at Otago in February 2016, and prior to that was a Principal Scientist at GNS Science. He has led the development of the last three versions of the national seismic hazard model for New Zealand (1998, 2002 and 2012), which is the hazard basis for the New Zealand Loadings Standard. He has worked extensively in industry-funded projects in the building construction, hydroelectric power, nuclear, and development aid sectors, and is widely recognised for his pioneering collaborative work with US colleagues on the use of historical and geological observations to validate seismic hazard models. He currently contributes to the development of national seismic and volcanic hazard models in New Zealand, applying the unifying principles of hazard modelling to these disparate perils. He has been the recipient of two Otto Glogau Awards from the New Zealand Society of Earthquake Engineering for his publications, was Society President for the period 2004-2006, and was made a Fellow of the Society in 2007. He is currently an Associate Editor for the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, and has served on oversight committees for the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation over the period 2009-12.

More about earthquake science research at Otago

Postgraduate student research opportunities

View available research opportunities

Current students

  • Govinda Niroula (PhD) – Earthquake rupture simulation science

Past students

  • Anna Kowal (PhD, 2022) – Shear wave velocity model and ground motion simulations for Dunedin and Mosgiel
  • Jonathan Griffin (PhD, 2021) – Seismic source modelling of low seismicity regions: Otago case study
  • Aidan Meyer (Bsc(Hons, 2021)) – Paleoseismology of the Long Valley Fault, Central Otago
  • Ella van den Berg (MSc, 2020) – Paleoseismology of the Cardrona Fault, Central Otago, New Zealand
  • Ross Nicolls (MSc, 2020) – East Otago range front geomorphology; constraints on location and timing of fault activity
  • Alex Zhou (PGDipSci, 2020) – What lies beneath the University Campus
  • Catherine Sangster (MSc, 2019) – Strong motion seismology ground motion simulations in Dunedin CBD
  • Elliot Bowie (MSc, 2017) –  Validations of ground motion simulations using precarious rocks
  • Andy Holt (MSc, 2017) – Analysis of and mapping of strata and overburden using seismology and other GIS techniques.
  • Briar Taylor-Silva (MSc, 2017) – Akatore Fault trenching
  • Asrid Vetrhus COP (MSc) – Earthquake-generated landslides in the Southern Alps

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Publications

Seeback, H., Van Dissen, R., Litchfield, N., Barnes, P. M., Nicol, A., Langridge, R., … Stirling, M., … Lee, J. (2023). The New Zealand Community Fault Model, version 1.0: An improved geological foundation for seismic hazard modelling. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2023.2181362

Gerstenberger, M. C., Rhoades, D. A., Litchfield, N., Abbott, E., Goded, T., Christophersen, A., … Stirling, M. W., … Wallace, L. (2023). A time-dependent seismic hazard model following the Kaikōura M7.8 earthquake. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2022.2158881

Barrell, D. J. A., Stirling, M. W., Williams, J. N., Sauer, K. M., & van den Berg, E. J. (2022). Hundalee Fault, North Canterbury, New Zealand: Late Quaternary activity and regional tectonics. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2022.2153877

Williams, J., Stirling, M., Niroula, G., Vause, A., Stewart, J., Nicol, A., & Langridge, R. (2022). Along-strike extent of ruptures on geometrically complex reverse faults: Insights from paleoseismic investigations and physics-based earthquake simulations of the Nevis-Cardrona Fault system. In A. V. Zernack & J. Palmer (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 161A, (pp. 307). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

Stirling, M., Williams, J., & Griffin, J. (2022). Earthquake source characterisation in southern New Zealand: An update. In A. V. Zernack & J. Palmer (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 161A, (pp. 259). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

Stirling, M., Berryman, K., Wallace, L. M., Litchfield, N. J., Beavan, J., & Smith, W. D. (2009). Multi-disciplinary probabilistic tectonic hazard analysis. In C. B. Connor, N. A. Chapman & J. Connor (Eds.), Volcanic and tectonic hazard assessment for nuclear facilities. (pp. 257-275). UK: Cambridge University Press. doi: 10.1017/CBO9780511635380.011

Chapter in Book - Research

Eberhart-Phillips, D., Sutherland, R., Eberhart-Phillips, D., Harris, R. A., Stern, T., Beavan, J., … Cox, S., Norris, R. J., … Cooper, A. F., … Stirling, M. (2007). Do great earthquakes occur on the Alpine fault in central South Island, New Zealand. In D. Okaya, T. Stern & F. Davey (Eds.), A continental plate boundary: Tectonics at South Island, New Zealand. (pp. 235-251). Washington, DC: American Geophysical Union. doi: 10.1029/175GM12

Chapter in Book - Research

Gerstenberger, M. C., Rhoades, D. A., Litchfield, N., Abbott, E., Goded, T., Christophersen, A., … Stirling, M. W., … Wallace, L. (2023). A time-dependent seismic hazard model following the Kaikōura M7.8 earthquake. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2022.2158881

Journal - Research Article

Seeback, H., Van Dissen, R., Litchfield, N., Barnes, P. M., Nicol, A., Langridge, R., … Stirling, M., … Lee, J. (2023). The New Zealand Community Fault Model, version 1.0: An improved geological foundation for seismic hazard modelling. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2023.2181362

Journal - Research Article

Barrell, D. J. A., Stirling, M. W., Williams, J. N., Sauer, K. M., & van den Berg, E. J. (2022). Hundalee Fault, North Canterbury, New Zealand: Late Quaternary activity and regional tectonics. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2022.2153877

Journal - Research Article

Griffin, J. D., Stirling, M. W., Wilcken, K. M., & Barrell, D. J. A. (2022). Late Quaternary slip rates for the Hyde and Dunstan Faults, Southern New Zealand: Implications for strain migration in a slowly deforming continental plate margin. Tectonics, 41(9), e2022TC007250. doi: 10.1029/2022TC007250

Journal - Research Article

Griffin, J. D., Stirling, M. W., Barrell, D. J. A., van den Berg, E. J., Todd, E. K., Nicolls, R., & Wang, N. (2021). Paleoseismology of the Hyde Fault, Otago, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2021.1995007

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M. W., Abbott, E. R., Rood, D. H., McVerry, G. H., Abrahamson, N. A., Barrell, D. J. A., … Zondervan, A. (2021). First use of fragile geologic features to set the design motions for a major engineered structure. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 11(5), 2673-2695. doi: 10.1785/0120210026

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M. W., Oskin, M. E., Arrowsmith, J. R., Rood, A. H., Goulet, C. A., Ludwig, L. G., … Wittich, C. E. (2021). Evaluation of seismic hazard models with fragile geologic features. Seismological Research Letters, 92(1), 314-324. doi: 10.1785/0220200197

Journal - Research Article

Griffin, J. D., Stirling, M. W., & Wang, T. (2020). Periodicity and clustering in the long-term earthquake record. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL089272. doi: 10.1029/2020GL089272

Journal - Research Article

Morell, K. D., Styron, R., Stirling, M., Griffin, J., Archuleta, R., & Onur, T. (2020). Seismic hazard analyses from geologic and geomorphic data: Current and future challenges [Commissioned manuscript]. Tectonics, 39, e2018TC005365. doi: 10.1029/2018TC005365

Journal - Research Article

Rood, A. H., Rood, D. H., Stirling, M. W., Madugo, C. M., Abrahamson, N. A., Wilcken, K. M., … Stafford, P. J. (2020). Earthquake hazard uncertainties improved using precariously balanced rocks. AGU Advances, 1(4), e2020AV000182. doi: 10.1029/2020av000182

Journal - Research Article

Taylor-Silva, B. I., Stirling, M. W., Litchfield, N. J., Griffin, J. D., van den Berg, E. J., & Wang, N. (2020). Paleoseismology of the Akatore Fault, Otago, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics, 63(2), 151-167. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2019.1645706

Journal - Research Article

Todd, E. K., Stirling, M. W., Fry, B., Salichon, J., & Villamor, P. (2020). Characterising microseismicity in a low seismicity region: Applications of short-term broadband seismic arrays in Dunedin, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics, 63(3), 331-341. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2019.1707238

Journal - Research Article

Goded, T., Gerstenberger, M., Stirling, M., Cousins, J., & Canessa, S. (2019). High-intensity assignments for the 22 February 2011 Mw 6.2 Christchurch, Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake: A contribution toward understanding the severe damage caused by this event. Seismological Research Letters, 90(4), 1468-1482. doi: 10.1785/0220180385

Journal - Research Article

Bebbington, M. S., Stirling, M. W., Cronin, S., Wang, T., & Jolly, G. (2018). National-level long-term eruption forecasts by expert elicitation. Bulletin of Volcanology, 80, 56. doi: 10.1007/s00445-018-1230-4

Journal - Research Article

Goded, T., Lewis, A., & Stirling, M. (2018). Seismic vulnerability scenarios of unreinforced masonry churches in New Zealand. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 16(9), 3957-3999. doi: 10.1007/s10518-018-0351-7

Journal - Research Article

Litchfield, N. J., Villamor, P., Van Dissen, R. J., Nicol, A., Barnes, P. M., Barrell, D. J. A., … Stirling, M. W., … Sauer, K., … Toy, V., Williams, J., … Zinke, R. (2018). Surface rupture of multiple crustal faults in the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura, New Zealand, earthquake. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108(3B), 1496-1520. doi: 10.1785/0120170300

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M. W., & Anderson, J. G. (2018). Magnitude as a function of rupture length and slip rate for recent large New Zealand earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108(3B), 1623-1629. doi: 10.1785/0120170284

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M., & Gerstenberger, M. (2018). Applicability of the Gutenberg-Richter relation for major active faults in New Zealand. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108(2), 718-728. doi: 10.1785/0120160257

Journal - Research Article

Williams, J., Barrell, D. J. A., Stirling, M. W., Sauer, K. M., Duke, G. C., & Hao, K. X. (2018). Surface rupture of the Hundalee Fault during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108(3B), 1540-1555. doi: 10.1785/0120170291

Journal - Research Article

Hamling, I. J., Hreinsdóttir, S., Clark, K., Elliott, J., Liang, C., Fielding, E., … Denys, P., … Pearson, C., … Stirling, M. (2017). Complex multifault rupture during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand. Science, 356(6334), eaam7194. doi: 10.1126/science.aam7194

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M. W., Litchfield, N. J., Villamor, P., Van Dissen, R. J., Nicol, A., Pettinga, J., … Duke, G., … Sauer, K., … Toy, V., … Williams, J., … Zinke, R. (2017). The MW7.8 2016 Kaikōura earthquake: Surface fault rupture and seismic hazard context. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 50(2), 73-84.

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M., Bebbington, M., Brenna, M., Cronin, S., Christophersen, A., Deligne, N., … Wang, T., White, J. D. L., … Wilson, T. (2017). Conceptual development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand. Frontiers in Earth Science, 5, 51. doi: 10.3389/feart.2017.00051

Journal - Research Article

Christopherson, A., Litchfield, N., Berryman, K., Thomas, R., Basili, R., Wallace, L., … Stirling, M. W., … Yeats, R. (2015). Development of the Global Earthquake Model’s neotectonic fault database. Natural Hazards, 79(1), 111-135. doi: 10.1007/s11069-015-1831-6

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M., & Della Pasqua, F. (2015). Erosion rates for pinnacles formed in soft sediments and implications for constraining seismic-hazard models. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(2A), 590-598. doi: 10.1785/0120140231

Journal - Research Article

Gerstenberger, M., McVerry, G., Rhoades, D., & Stirling, M. (2014). Seismic hazard modeling for the recovery of Christchurch. Earthquake Spectra, 30(1), 17-29. doi: 10.1193/021913EQS037M

Journal - Research Article

Mountjoy, J. J., Micallef, A., Stevens, C. L., & Stirling, M. W. (2014). Holocene sedimentary activity in a non-terrestrially coupled submarine canyon: Cook Strait Canyon system, New Zealand. Deep Sea Research Part II, 104, 120-133. doi: 10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.09.001

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M., Goded, T., Berryman, K., & Litchfield, N. (2013). Selection of earthquake scaling relationships for seismic-hazard analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103(6), 2993-3011. doi: 10.1785/0120130052

Journal - Research Article

Bradley, B. A., Stirling, M. W., McVerry, G. H., & Gerstenberger, M. (2012). Consideration and propagation of epistemic uncertainties in New Zealand probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 102(4), 1554-1568. doi: 10.1785/0120110257

Journal - Research Article

Cox, S. C., Stirling, M. W., Herman, F., Gerstenberger, M., & Ristau, J. (2012). Potentially active faults in the rapidly eroding landscape adjacent to the Alpine Fault, central Southern Alps, New Zealand. Tectonics, 31(2), TC2011. doi: 10.1029/2011TC003038

Journal - Research Article

Rhoades, D., & Stirling, M. W. (2012). An earthquake likelihood model based on proximity to mapped faults and cataloged earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 102(4), 1593-1599. doi: 10.1785/0120110326

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M., McVerry, G., Gerstenberger, M., Litchfield, N., Van Dissen, R., Berryman, K., … Jacobs, K. (2012). National seismic hazard model for New Zealand: 2010 update. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 102(4), 1514-1542. doi: 10.1785/0120110170

Journal - Research Article

Villamor, P., Capote, R., Stirling, M. W., Tsige, M., Berryman, K. R., Martinez-Díaz, J. J., & Martin-González, F. (2012). Contribution of active faults in the intraplate area of Iberia to seismic hazard: The Alentejo-Plasencia Fault. Journal of Iberian Geology, 38(1), 85-111. doi: 10.5209/rev_JIGE.2012.v38.n1.39207

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M., Litchfield, N., Gerstenberger, M., Clark, D., Bradley, B., Beavan, J., … Buxton, R. (2011). Preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of the CO2CRC Otway project site, Victoria, Australia. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 101(6), 2726-2736. doi: 10.1785/0120110049

Journal - Research Article

Slejko, D., Caporali, A., Stirling, M., & Barba, S. (2010). Occurrence probability of moderate to large earthquakes in Italy based on new geophysical methods. Journal of Seismology, 14(1), 27-51. doi: 10.1007/s10950-009-9175-x

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M. W., Ledgerwood, J., Liu, T., & Apted, M. (2010). Age of unstable bedrock landforms southwest of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and implications for past ground motions. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 100(1), 74-86. doi: 10.1785/0120080359

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M., & Gerstenberger, M. (2010). Ground motion-based testing of seismic hazard models in New Zealand. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 100(4), 1407-1414. doi: 10.1785/0120090336

Journal - Research Article

Gerstenberger, M., Nicol, A., Stenhouse, M., Berryman, K., Stirling, M., Webb, T., & Smith, W. (2009). Modularised logic tree risk assessment method for carbon capture and storage projects. Energy Procedia, 1, 2495-2502. doi: 10.1016/j.egypro.2009.02.012

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M., Gerstenberger, M., Litchfield, N., McVerry, G., Smith, W., Pettinga, J., & Barnes, P. (2008). Seismic hazard of the Canterbury Region, New Zealand: New earthquake source model and methodology. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 41(2), 51-67.

Journal - Research Article

Tormann, T., Savage, M. K., Smith, E. G. C., Stirling, M. W., & Wiemer, S. (2008). Time-, distance-, and magnitude-dependent foreshock probability model for New Zealand. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 98(5), 2149-2160. doi: 10.1785/0120060217

Journal - Research Article

Nodder, S. D., Lamarche, G., Proust, J.-N., & Stirling, M. (2007). Characterizing earthquake recurrence parameters for offshore faults in the low-strain, compressional Kapiti-Manawatu Fault System, New Zealand. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 112, B12102. doi: 10.1029/2007JB005019

Journal - Research Article

Power, W., Downes, G., & Stirling, M. (2007). Estimation of tsunami hazard in New Zealand due to South American earthquakes. Pure & Applied Geophysics, 164(2), 547-564. doi: 10.1007/s00024-006-0166-3

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M. W., & Anooshehpoor, R. (2006). Constraints on probabilistic seismic-hazard models from unstable landform features in New Zealand. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96(2), 404-414. doi: 10.1785/0120050034

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M., & Petersen, M. (2006). Comparison of the historical record of earthquake hazard with seismic-hazard models for New Zealand and the continental United States. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96(6), 1978-1994. doi: 10.1785/0120050176

Journal - Research Article

Zachariasen, J., Berryman, K., Langridge, R., Prentice, C., Rymer, M., Stirling, M., & Villamor, P. (2006). Timing of late Holocene surface rupture of the Wairau Fault, Marlborough, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics, 49(1), 159-174. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2006.9515156

Journal - Research Article

Alloway, B., McComb, P., Neall, V., Vucetich, C., Gibb, J., Sherburn, S., & Stirling, M. (2005). Stratigraphy, age, and correlation of voluminous debris-avalanche events from an ancestral Egmont Volcano: Implications for coastal plain construction and regional hazard assessment. Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand, 35, 229-267. doi: 10.1080/03014223.2005.9517782

Journal - Research Article

Pace, B., Stirling, M. W., Litchfield, N. J., & Rieser, U. (2005). New active fault data and seismic hazard estimates for west Otago, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics, 48(1), 75-83. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2005.9515099

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M. W., McVerry, G. H., & Berryman, K. R. (2002). A new seismic hazard model for New Zealand. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92(5), 1878-1903. doi: 10.1785/0120010156

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M., Anoshehpoor, A., Brune, J. N., Biasi, G. P., & Wesnousky, S. G. (2002). Assessment of the site conditions of precariously balanced rocks in the Mojave Desert, southern California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92(6), 2139-2144. doi: 10.1785/0120010221

Journal - Research Article

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