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Publications of the Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity & Cost-Effectiveness Programme (BODE³)

Puka rangahau

Journal articles  

Blakely T, Nghiem N, Genc M, Mizdrak A, Cobiac C, Ni Mhurchu C, Swinburn B, Scarborough P, Cleghorn C. Modelling the health impact of food taxes and subsidies with price elasticities: the case for additional scaling of food consumption using the total food expenditure elasticity. arXiv 2019: https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.13179

Mizdrak A, Blakely T, Cleghorn CL, Cobiac LJ. Potential of active transport to improve health, reduce healthcare costs, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions: A modelling study. PLoS One 2019;14(7):e0219316. (Related media release)

Wilson N, Davies A, Brewer N, Nghiem N, Cobiac L, Blakely T. Can cost-effectiveness results be combined into a coherent league table? Case study from one high-income country. Popul Health Metr  2019;17(1):10. doi: 10.1186/s12963-019-0192-x. https://pophealthmetrics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12963-019-0192-x

Boyd M, Kvizhinadze G, Kho A, Wilson G, Wilson N. Cataract surgery for falls prevention and improving vision: modelling the health gain, health system costs and cost-effectiveness in a high-income country. Inj Prev  2019 Jun 20. doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043184

Nair N, Kvizhinadze G, Jones GT, Rush R, Khashram M, Roake J, Blakely A. Health gains, costs and cost‐effectiveness of a population‐based screening programme for abdominal aortic aneurysmsBr J Surg 2018 doi:10.1002/bjs.11169

Nghiem N, Leung W, Cleghorn C, Blakely T, Wilson N. Mass media promotion of a smartphone smoking cessation app: Modelled health and cost-saving impacts. BMC Public Health2019;19(1):283. doi: 10.1186/s12889-019-6605-8.

Cleghorn C, Blakely T, Ni Mhurchu C, Wilson N, Neal B, Eyles H. Estimating the health benefits and cost-savings of a cap on the size of single serve sugar-sweetened beverages.  Prev Med 2019 Jan 17. pii: S0091-7435(19)30013-1. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2019.01.009.

Cleghorn C, Wilson N, Nair N, Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, McLeod M, Blakely T. Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness From Promoting Smartphone Apps for Weight Loss: Multistate Life Table Modeling  JMIR mHealth and uHealth 2019;7(1):e11118

Boyd M, Mansoor OD, Baker MG, Wilson N. Economic evaluation of border closure for a generic severe pandemic threat using New Zealand Treasury methods. Aust N Z J Public Health 2018;42:444-446.

Wilson N, Petrović-van der Deen FS, Edwards R, Waa A, Blakely T. Modelling the number of quitters needed to achieve New Zealand’s Smokefree 2025 goal for Māori and non-Māori. N Z Med J2018;131(1487):30-37.

Wilson N, Jones AC, Nghiem N, Blakely T. Preventing cardiovascular disease in New Zealand: Making better use of statins but also tobacco control, changing the food supply and other strategies. N Z Med J 2018;131(1484):61-67

Blakely T, Kvizhinadze G, Atkinson J, Dielemann J, Clarke P. Health system costs for individual and comorbid noncommunicable diseases: an analysis of publicly-funded health events from New Zealand. PLoS Med 2018;16(1): e1002716. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002716 

Petrović-van der Deen FS, Wilson N, Crothers A, Cleghorn CL, Gartner C, Blakely T. The potential health and cost impacts of legalizing domestic sale of vaporized nicotine products at a country level: A modelling study.  Epidemiol 2019;30(3):396-404.

Petrović-van der Deen FS, Blakely T, Kvizhinadze G, Cleghorn C, Cobiac L, Wilson N. Restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies combined with cessation advice: a modelling study of the future smoking prevalence, health and cost impacts. Tob Control. (Epub ahead of print: 9 November 2018). 2018. 

Deverall E, Kvizhinadze G, Pega F, Blakely T, Wilson N. Exercise programmes to prevent falls among older adults: modelling health gain, cost-utility and equity impactsInj Prev 2018:(E-publication 23 January). doi:10.1136/ injuryprev-2016-042309

Cleghorn CL, Blakely T, Kvizhinadze G, van der Deen FSNghiem NCobiac LJWilson NImpact of increasing tobacco taxes on working-age adults: short-term health gain, health equity and cost savingsTob Control 2018 Oct;27(e2):e167-e170

Pearson AL, Cleghorn CL, van der Deen FS, Cobiac LJ, Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, Blakely T, Wilson N. Tobacco retail outlet restrictions: health and cost impacts from multistate life-table modelling in a national population. Tob Control 2017;26:579-585. doi:10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2015-052846

Nghiem N, Cleghorn CL, Leung W, Nair N, van der Deen FS, Blakely T, Wilson N. A national quitline service and its promotion in the mass media: Modelling the health gain, health equity, and cost-utility. Tob Control. 2017 

McLeod M, Kvizhinadze G, Boyd M, Barendregt J, Sarfati D, Wilson N, Blakely T. Colorectal cancer screening: How health gains and cost-effectiveness vary by ethnic group, the impact on health inequalities, and the optimal age-range to screen. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2017

van der Deen FS, Wilson N, Cleghorn CL, Kvizhinadze G, Cobiac LJ, Nghiem N, Blakely T. Impact of five tobacco endgame strategies on future smoking prevalence, population health and health system costs: two modelling studies to inform the tobacco endgame. Tob Control. 2017

Teng AM, Kvizhinadze G, Nair N, McLeod M, Wilson N, Blakely T. A screening program to test and treat for Helicobacter pylori infection: Cost-utility analysis by age, sex and ethnicity. BMC Infect Dis 2017;17:156.

Nair N, Kvizhinadze G, Blakely T. Cancer Care Coordinators to Improve Tamoxifen Persistence in Breast Cancer: How Heterogeneity in Baseline Prognosis Impacts on Cost-Effectiveness. Value in Health. 2016; 19: 936-944.

Pearson A, Cleghorn C, van der Deen FS, Cobiac L, Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, Blakely T, Wilson N. Tobacco retail outlet restrictions: health and cost impacts from multistate life-table modelling in a national population. Tob Control. 2016;0:1-7. doi:10.1136/tobaccocontrol

Collinson L, Kvizhinadze G, Nair N, McLeod M, Blakely T. Economic evaluation of single-fraction versus multiple-fraction palliative radiotherapy for painful bone metastases in breast, lung and prostate cancer. J Med Imaging Radiat Oncol 2016 60(5):650-660. doi: 10.1111/1754-9485.12467.

Nghiem N, Blakely T, Cobiac LJ, Cleghorn CL, Wilson N. The health gains and cost savings of dietary salt reduction interventions, with equity and age distributional aspects. BMC Public Health 2016;16:423. doi: 10.1186/s12889-016-3102-1.

Briggs A.D.M, Wolstenholme J, Blakely T, Scarborough P. Choosing an epidemiological model structure for the economic evaluation of non-communicable disease public health interventions. Popul Health Metr 2016 14:17 doi: 10.1186/s12963-016-0085-1

Leung W, Kvizhinadze G, Nair N, Blakely T. Adjuvant Trastuzumab in HER2-Positive Early Breast Cancer by Age and Hormone Receptor Status: A Cost-Utility Analysis. PLoS Med 2016; 13(8): e1002067. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002067

Pega F, Kvizhinadze G, Blakely T, Atkinson J, Wilson N. Home safety assessment and modification to reduce injurious falls in community-dwelling older adults: Cost-utility and equity analysis. Inj Prev 2016;(E-publication 24 May).

Wilson N, Nghiem N, Eyles H, Ni Mhurchu C, Shields E, Cobiac LJ, Cleghorn C, Blakely T. Modeling Health Gains and Cost Savings for Ten Dietary Salt Reduction Targets. Nutr J 2016, 15:44. doi: 10.1186/s12937-016-0161-1.

Wilson N, Nghiem N, Ryan S, Cleghorn C, Nair N, Blakely T. Designing low-cost "heart healthy bread": Optimization using linear programing and 15-country comparison. BMC Nutrition 2016;2:23

Wilson N, Selak V, Blakely T, Knight J, Nghiem N, Leung W, Clarke P, Jackson R. Decision-making in an era of cancer prevention via aspirin: New Zealand needs updated guidelines and risk calculators. N Z Med J 2016;129:1431:85-92.

Blakely T, Atkinson J, Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, McLeod H, Davies A, Wilson N. Updated New Zealand health system cost estimates from health events by sex, age and proximity to death: further improvements in the age of ‘big data’. N Z Med J 2015;128(1422):13-23

Blakely T, Cobiac LJ, Cleghorn CL, Pearson AL, van der Deen FS, Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, McLeod M, Wilson N. Health, health inequality and cost impacts of annual increases in tobacco tax: Multistate lifetable modeling in New Zealand. PLoS Med 2015;12(7): e1001856. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001856

Blakely T, Collinson L, Kvizhinadze G, Nair N, Foster R, Dennett E, Sarfati D. Cancer care coordinators in stage III colon cancer: a cost-utility analysis. BMC Health Services Research 2015;15:306. doi: 10.1186/s12913-015-0970-5

Kvizhinadze G, Wilson N, Nair N, McLeod M, Blakely T. How much might a society spend on life-saving interventions at different ages while remaining cost-effective? Estimates using New Zealand health system costs, morbidity, and mortality data. Popul Health Metr 2015;13:15. doi:10.1186/s12963-015-0052-2

Broad JB, Ashton T, Gott M, McLeod H, Davis PB, Connolly MJ. Likelihood of residential aged care use in later life: a simple approach to estimation with international comparison. Aust NZ J Public Health. 2015; Online; doi: 10.1111/1753-6405.12374

Blakely T, Atkinson J, Kvizhinadze G, Wilson N, Clarke P. Patterns of cancer costs in a country with detailed individual data. Med Care 2015; 53: 302-309. doi:10.1097/MLR.0000000000000330

[View note with corrections for some typos with the above paper]

Note correction for some typos with the above paper (Blakely T et al. Patterns of cancer costs in a country with detailed data, Med Care 2015): In the second paragraph of the “Results” section in the abstract, the total cost of melanoma should be US$5000 instead of US$8000. In the same sentence, the total cost of bone and connective tissue cancer should be listed as US$66,000 rather than US$98,000. On the fourth page of the article, the third full paragraph under the subheader “Cost of Cancer by Phase of Cancer Management Pathway,” one sentence appears incorrectly. The value “US$1190 for prostate” needs to be changed to just “$1190 for prostate” in the first sentence.

Nghiem N, Blakely T, Cobiac LJ, Pearson AL, Wilson N. Health and economic impacts of eight different dietary salt reduction interventions. PLoS One 2015;10(4):e0123915.

Ikeda T, Cobiac L, Wilson N, Carter K, Blakely T. What will it take to get to under 5% smoking prevalence by 2025? Modelling in a country with a smokefree goal. Tob Control 2015; 24: 139-145. doi:10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2013-051196

van der Deen FS, Ikeda T, Cobiac L, Wilson N, Blakely T. Projecting future smoking prevalence to 2025 and beyond in New Zealand using smoking prevalence data from the 2013 Census. N Z Med J 2014; 127(1406): 1-9.

Hadorn D, Kvizhinadze G, Collinson L, Blakely T. Use of Expert Knowledge Elicitation to Estimate Parameters in Health Economic Decision Models. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care. 2014; 30 (04): 461-68.

Cobiac LJ, Ikeda T, Nghiem N, Blakely T, Wilson N. Modelling the implications of regular increases in tobacco taxation in the tobacco endgame. Tob Control 2015;24:e154–60.

Pearson AL, van der Deen FS, Wilson N, Cobiac L and Blakely T. Theoretical impacts of a range of major tobacco retail outlet reduction interventions: Modelling results in a country with a smokefree nation goal. Tob Control 2014 [E-publication 18 July].

Pearson AL, Kvizhinadze G, Wilson N, Smith M, Canfell K, Blakely T. Is expanding HPV vaccination programs to include school-aged boys likely to be value-for-money? A cost-utility analysis in a country with an existing school-girl program. BMC Infect Dis 2014; 14:351

Mcleod M, Blakely T, Kvizhinadze G, Harris R. Why equal treatment is not always equitable: the impact of existing ethnic health inequalities in cost-effectiveness modelling. Popul Health Metr 2014; 12:15

Blakely T, Atkinson J, Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, McLeod H, Wilson N. Health system costs by sex, age and proximity to death, and implications for estimation of future expenditure. N Z Med J 2014;127(1393):12-25

Webber-Foster R, Kvizhinadze G, Rivalland G, Blakely T. Cost-effectiveness analysis of docetaxel versus paclitaxel in adjuvant treatment of regional breast cancer in New Zealand. Pharmacoeconomics published online first. DOI: 10.1007/s40273-014-0154-x

Blakely T, Kvizhinadze G, Karvonen T, Pearson AL, Smith M, Wilson N. Cost-effectiveness and equity impacts of three HPV vaccination programmes for school-aged girls in New Zealand. Vaccine 2014; 32: 2645–2656

Pearson AL, Winter PR, McBreen B, Stewart G, Roets R, Nanayakkara A, Nutsford D, Bowie C, Donnellan N and Wilson N. Obtaining fruit and vegetables for the lowest prices: Pricing survey of different outlets and geographical analysis of competition effects. PLoS ONE 2014; 9(3): e89775. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0089775 - [additional comments on "halo pricing"].

Blakely T, Wilson N, Kaye-Blake B. Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages to curb future obesity and diabetes epidemics. PLoS Med 2014;11:e1001583. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001583.

Nghiem N, Wilson N, Genç M, Blakely T. Understanding Price Elasticities to Inform Public Health Research and Intervention Studies: Key Issues. Am J Public Health 2013; [E-publication 12 September 2013]: e1–e8

Collinson L, Foster R, Stapleton M, Blakely T. Cancer care coordinators: what are they and what will they cost? NZ Med J 2013; 126(1381): 1-12

Costilla R, Tobias M, Blakely T. The burden of cancer in New Zealand: a comparison of incidence and DALY metrics and its relevance for ethnic disparities. Aust N Z J Public Health 2013; 37(3): 218-225

Foster RH, Wilson N. Review of the evidence for the potential impact and feasibility of substituting saturated fat in the New Zealand diet. Aust N Z J Public Health 2013; 37(4): 329-336

Wilson N, Nghiem N, Ni Mhurchu C, Eyles H, Baker MG, Blakely T. Foods and dietary patterns that are healthy, low-cost, and environmentally sustainable: A case study of optimization modeling for New Zealand. PLoS One 2013; 8(3): e59648

Wilson N, Nghiem N, Foster RH. The feasibility of achieving low-sodium intake in diets that are also nutritious, low-cost, and have familiar meal components. PLoS One 2013; 8(3): e58539 [See media release]

Wilson N, Thomson G, Edwards R, Blakely T. Potential Advantages and Disadvantages of an Endgame Strategy: A “Sinking Lid” on Tobacco Supply. Tob Control 2013; 22: i18-i21

Nghiem N, Carter M-A, Wilson N. Emergency food storage for organisations and citizens in New Zealand: Results of optimisation modelling. NZ Med J 2012; 125(1367): 49-60

Wilson N, Nghiem N, Higgins A, Kvizhinadze G, Baker MG, Blakely T. A national estimate of the hospitalisation costs for the influenza (H1N1) pandemic in 2009. NZ Med J 2012; 125(1365): 1-5

Wilson N, Nghiem N, Foster R, Cobiac L, Blakely T. Estimating the cost of new public health legislation. Bull WHO 2012; 90: 532-539 [For a file with input costs and results in NZ$ see here]

Wilson N, Blakely T, Foster R, Hadorn D, Vos T. Prioritizing risk factors to identify preventive interventions for economic assessment. Bull WHO 2012; 90: 88–96

Letters

Petrović-van der Deen FS, Wilson N. Restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies as an endgame strategy: are pharmacies likely to opt in? Aust N Z J Public Health 2018;(E-publication 14 February).

Edwards R, Blakely T, van der Deen F. Modelling of tobacco endgame interventions: a response. N Z Med J 2015; 128 (1426): 116-118

Wilson N, Nghiem N, Eyles H, Ni Mhurchu C, Cobiac LJ, Pearson AL, Cleghorn C, Blakely T. Possible impact of the Tick Programme in New Zealand on selected nutrient intakes: Tentative estimates and methodological complexities. N Z Med J 2014;127(1399):85-88.

van der Deen FS, Wilson N, Blakely T. Possible Methodological Reason for the Finding That “Neither Tax Increase nor Reimbursement Reduced Health Disparities”: Comment on the Article by Over et al. Nicotine Tob Res 2014;16:1030.

van der Deen FS, Pearson AL, Wilson N. Ending the sale of cigarettes at US pharmacies. JAMA 2014; 312(5): 559

Wilson N, Morgan J, Baker MG. Evidence for effectiveness of a national HPV vaccination programme: national prescription data from New Zealand. Sex Transm Infect 2014;90:103

Wilson N, van der Deen F, Pearson A, Cobiac L, Blakely T. Expert ranking of tobacco control interventions for health economic modelling research in New Zealand. NZ Med J 2013; 126(1368)

Wilson N, Nghiem N. Low sodium diets can be both nutritious and low cost. BMJ 2012; 344: e3837 [copy available on request]

Wilson N, Thomson G, Blakely T. Use of pricing and tax interventions for protecting health: potential relevance for New Zealand of recent international developments. NZ Med J 2011; 124(1342): 100-103

Protocols and Position Statements

BODE3 Research Group Position Statement on Health Inequality and Equity: How we Conduct Research and Report Results

Authorship Policy for Research Outputs from BODE3

This first protocol is the overall protocol for BODE³, and will be periodically updated.

Blakely T, Foster R, Wilson N, and BODE³ team. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness (BODE3) Study Protocol. Version 2.1. Technical Report No.3. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, December 2012.

The following protocols contain more detail on specific issues, falling beneath the overall protocol above.

Foster R, Blakely T, Wilson N, ODea D. Protocol for Direct Costing of Health Sector Interventions for Economic Modelling (Including Event Pathways). Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No. 12. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, July 2012.

Blakely T, Costilla R, Soeberg M. Cancer Excess Mortality Rates Over 2006-2026 for ABC-CBA. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No. 10. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, May 2012.

Kvizhinadze G, Ikeda T, Blakely T. Modelling Options for ABC-CBA. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No. 17. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, May 2012.

Foster R. Literature Search and Data Synthesis Methods for Estimating Inputs for Health Economic Modelling. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No.7. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, November 2011.

Nghiem N, Wilson N, Blakely T. Price Elasticities for Health Economic Modelling of Food Pricing Interventions in Australia and New Zealand. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No.9. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, November 2011.

Foster R, Preval N, Blakely T, Wilson N, O'Dea D. Costing of Pharmaceuticals in New Zealand for Health Economic Studies: Backgrounder and Protocol for Costing. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No.6. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, September 2011.

Costilla R, Atkinson J, Blakely T. Incorporating Ethnic and Deprivation Variation to Cancer Incidence Estimates over 2006-2026 for ABC-CBA. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No.5. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, September 2011.

Kvizhinadze G, Blakely T. Projected NZ Life Tables. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No.4. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, April 2011.

Reports  

Cleghorn C, Blakely T, Jones A, Kvizhinadze G, Mizdrak A, Nghiem N, Mhurchu C, Wilson N. Feasible diet intervention options to improve health and save costs for the New Zealand population. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, 2019.

Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity, and Cost-Effectiveness Programme (2019) Disease Inputs used for Multi-State Life Table Modelling (Version 1.0).

Mizdrak A, Blakely T,Cleghorn C, Cobiac, L. Technical report for BODE³ active transport and physical activity model. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Technical Report no. 18. Wellington, Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, 2018.

Cleghorn C, Blakely T, Nghiem N, Mizdrak A, Wilson N. Technical report for BODE³ DIET intervention and Multistate Lifetable Models. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Technical Report no. 16. Wellington, Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, 2017.

Wilson N, Blakely T, Nghiem N, Cleghorn C, Kvizhinadze G, Atkinson J, Nair N, Mizdrak A, Sanne van der Deen F. Guide for ensuring high quality of modelling outputs in  the BODE3 programme. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Wellington, Department of Public Health, May 2017.

Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, Atkinson J, Blakely T. Cost off-sets used in BODE³ multistate lifetable models. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Technical Report no. 15. Wellington, Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, 2016.  

Pega F, Wilson N. A systematic review of economic analyses of the health impact of structural housing interventions: Protocol. Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, 2014.

Wilson N. Background Technical Details on Mandatory Interventions Used in Sodium Reduction Modelling for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, 2014.

Wilson N, Nghiem N. Background Report for BODE³ Modelling on Estimating the Impact of the Tick Programme in New Zealand (a Heart Health Food Endorsement Programme). Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, 2014.

Wilson N. Estimating the modelling parameters around dietary counselling for preventing cardiovascular disease in New Zealand. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, 2014.

Nghiem N, Wilson N, Blakely T. Technical Background to the Cardiovascular Disease Model used in the BODE³ Programme. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, Updated 2015.

Nghiem N, Wilson N, Blakely T. Validation Issues Relating to the Cardiovascular Disease Model Developed in the BODE³ Programme. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, March 2014.

Holmes E, Blakely T, Laking G. Approaches to Prioritisation and Health Technology Assessment in New Zealand. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Working Paper Version 1. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, April 2014.

Foster R, Wilson N. Determination of Effect Size for Modelling in BODE³: A Worked Example of the Effect of Reducing Dietary Saturated Fat Intake on Cardiovascular Events. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No. 8. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, June 2012

Blakely T, Costilla R, Tobias M. The Burden of Cancer New Zealand 2006. Wellington: Ministry of Health and University of Otago, 2010.

Wilson N and NZ-ACE Prevention Team. Possible NZACE-Prevention Interventions for Stakeholders to Critique. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No.2. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, November 2010.

Wilson N, Blakely T, Foster R, Hadorn D, Vos T. What are the Priority Health Risk Factors for Researching Preventive Interventions as Part of NZACE-Prevention? Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No.1. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, November 2010.

MBIE-funded publications

Cleghorn CL, Wilson N, Nair N, Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, McLeod M, Blakely T. Health benefits and costs of weight-loss dietary counselling by nurses in primary care: a cost-effectiveness analysis. Public Health Nutr 2019;(E-pub 14 Oct):1-11. doi: 10.1017/S1368980019002945

Cleghorn C, Wilson N, Nair N, Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, McLeod M, Blakely T . Health benefits and cost-effectiveness from promoting smartphone apps for weight loss: Multi-state life-table modeling. JMIR mHealth and uHealth (JMU). 2019;7(1):e11118

Wilson N, Jones AC, Nghiem N, Blakely T. Preventing cardiovascular disease in New Zealand: Making better use of statins but also tobacco control, changing the food supply and other strategies. N Z Med J 2018;131(1484):61-67.

Wilson N, Kvizhinadze G, Pega F, Nair N, Blakely T. Home modification to reduce falls at a health district level: modeling health gain, health inequalities and health costs. PLoS One (in press).

Nghiem N, Cleghorn CL, Leung W, Nair N, van der Deen FS, Blakely T, Wilson N. A national quitline service and its promotion in the mass media: modelling the health gain, health equity and cost-utility. Tob Control 2017;(E-publication 24 July). 

Patel R, Sulzberger L, Li G, Mair J, Morley H, Ng-Wai Shing M, O’Leary C, Prakash A, Robilliard N, Rutherford M, Sharpe C, Shie C, Sritharan L, Turnbull J, Whyte I, Yu H, Cleghorn C, Leung W, Wilson N. Smartphone apps for weight loss and smoking cessation: Quality ranking of 120 apps. N Z Med J 2015; 128:1421

Patel R, Sulzberger L, Li G, Mair J, Morley H, Ng-Wai Shing M, O’Leary C, Prakash A, Robilliard N, Rutherford M, Sharpe C, Shie C, Sritharan L, Turnbull J, Whyte I, Yu H, Cleghorn C, Leung W, Wilson N. Online Report: Smartphone apps for weight loss and smoking cessation: Quality ranking of 120 apps (full methods and results). Wellington: University of Otago, 2015. 

Related work

 Boyd M, Kho A, Wilson N, Wilson G. Expediting cataract surgery in New Zealand is cost-effective for falls prevention and improving vision – but what else should we be doing? N Z Med J (In press).

Teng AM, Jones AC, Mizdrak A, Signal L, Genç M, Wilson N. Impact of sugar-sweetened beverage taxes on purchases and dietary intake: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Obes Rev 2019:(E-publication 19 June).

Wilson N, Cleghorn CL, Cobiac LJ, Mizdrak A, Nghiem N. Achieving healthy and sustainable diets: A review of the results of recent studies using mathematical optimization. Adv Nutr (in Press).

Waterlander WE, Jiang Y, Nghiem N, Eyles H, Wilson N, Cleghorn C, Genç M, Swinburn B, Ni Mhurchu C, Blakely T. The effect of food price changes on consumer purchases: a randomised experiment. Lancet Public Health 2019;4:e394–405. https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2468-2667%2819%2930105-7 (Open Access)

Petrović-van der Deen FS, Wilson N. Restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies as an endgame strategy: are pharmacies likely to opt in? Aust N Z J Public Health2018;42:219-220.

Blakely T, Disney G, Valeri L, Atkinson J, Teng A, Wilson N, Gurrin L. Socio-economic and tobacco mediation of ethnic inequalities in mortality over time: repeated census mortality cohort studies, 1981 to 2011. Epidemiology 2018; 29(4): 506–516

Teng A, Atkinson J, Disney G, Wilson N, Blakely T. Changing smoking-mortality association over time and across social groups: National census-mortality cohort studies from 1981 to 2011. Sci Rep September 2017.

Boyd M, Baker MG, Mansoor OD, Kvizhinadze G, Wilson N. Protecting an island nation from extreme pandemic threats: Proof-of-concept around border closure as an intervention. PLoS One. 2017;12:e0178732.

Disney G, Teng A, Atkinson J, Wilson N, Blakely T. Changing ethnic inequalities in mortality in New Zealand over 30 years;linked to cohort studies with 68.9 million person-years of follow-up. Popul Health Metr 2017;15:15.DOI 10.1186/s12963-017-0132

Teng AM, Blakely T, Ivory V, et al. Living in areas with different levels of earthquake damage and association with risk of cardiovascular disease: a cohort-linkage study. The Lancet Planetary Health 2017;1(6):e242-e253.

Sarfati D, Shaw C, McLeod M, Blakely T, Bissett I. Screening for colorectal cancer: spoiled for choice? N Z Med J 2016; 129(1440):120-8.

Ramachandran N, Wilson N, Wilson GA. There is a need to know if New Zealand’s visual acuity screening programme in school-age children is justified. N Z Med J 2016; 129(1440):137-138

Waterlander WE, Blakely T, Nghiem N, Cleghorn CL, Eyles H, Genc M, Wilson N, Jiang Y, Swinburn B, Jacobi L, Michie J, Ni Mhurchu C. Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study). BMC Public Health 2016; 16:601. DOI: 10.1186/s12889-016-3277-5

Pega F, Wilson N. A systematic review of health economic analyses of housing improvement interventions and insecticide-treated bednets in the home. PLoS ONE 2016;11(6): e0151812

Ball J, Stanley J, Wilson N, Blakely T, Edwards R. Smoking prevalence in New Zealand from 1996-2015: A critical review of national data sources to inform progress toward the smokefree 2025 goal. N Z Med J 2016; 129(1439):11-22.

Delany L, Thomson G, Wilson N, Edwards R. Key design features of a new smokefree law to help achieve the Smokefree Aotearoa New Zealand 2025 goal. N Z Med J 2016;

Wilson N, Edwards R, Hoek J, Thomson G, Jaine R. Could New Zealand’s law on “New Psychoactive Substances” provide lessons for achieving the Smokefree 2025 Goal? [Letter] N Z Med J 2016;149(1432):94-6.

Wilson N, Selak V, Blakely T, Knight J, Nghiem N, Leung W, Clarke P, Jackson R. Decision-making in an era of cancer prevention via aspirin: New Zealand needs updated guidelines and risk calculators. N Z Med J 2016;129(1431):85-92.

Ni Mhurchu C, Eyles H, Genc M, Scarborough P, Rayner M, Mizdrak A, Nnoaham K, Blakely T. Effects of Health-Related Food Taxes and Subsidies on Mortality from Diet-Related Disease in New Zealand: An Econometric-Epidemiologic Modelling Study. PLoS One 2015;10(7):e0128477

Wilson N, Blakely T. The high health burden from alcohol in New Zealand and the need for an appropriate government response [Editorial]. N Z Med J 2015;128(1409):6-8

Ni Mhurchu C, Eyles H, Genc M, Blakely T. Twenty percent tax on fizzy drinks could save lives and generate millions in revenue for health programmes in New Zealand. NZ Med J 2014; Vol 127 No 1389; ISSN 1175 8716

Pearson A, Wilson N. Optimising locational access of deprived populations to farmers' markets at a national scale: one route to improved fruit and vegetable consumption? PeerJ 2013;1:e94. doi: 10.7717/peerj.94

Eyles H, Ni Mhurchu C, Nghiem N, Blakely T. Food Pricing Strategies, Population Diets, and Non-Communicable Disease: A Systematic Review of Simulation Studies. PLoS Med 2012; 9(12): e1001353. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001353