COVID-19 content from the University of Otago, Wellington, University of Otago, Wellington, University of Otago, New Zealand

This page has been compiled to help you access the content provided in response to COVID‑19 from our Wellington campus and our Co-Search research group.

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Co-search is led by Professor Michael Baker (Director) and Dr Amanda Kvalsvig (Lead Researcher) at the Department of Public Health, University of Otago Wellington. It includes a network of more than 20 collaborating researchers, 3 universities, a Crown research institute, community organisations and an international advisory group.

Co-Search Overview

If you are interested in Public Health postgraduate study or research opportunities through the University of Otago, Wellington please view postgraduate programmes.

Journal outputs
Reports for New Zealand Ministry of Health
Public Health Expert blog posts
Opinion pieces, including The Conversation
Live Q and A with Dr Ayesha Verrall
Live Q and A with Professor Michael Baker
Open talks / webinars
Selection of media stories
Staff assisting the Ministry of Health
Related work
Telehealth training with Dr Fiona Graham
COVID-19 in Wellington – captured in pictures

Journal outputs

Validation analysis of Global Health Security Index (GHSI) scores 2019. Dr Matt Boyd, Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Cassidy Nelson. BMJ Global Health (in press).
The COVID-19 elimination debate – needs to use correct data. Professor Michael Baker, Profesor Nick Wilson. BMJ Rapid Response 16 September 2020.
Estimating the risk of outbreaks of covid-19 associated with shore leave by merchant ship crews: Simulation studies for a case country. Professor Nick Wilson, Professor Tony Blakely, Professor Michael Baker, Dr Martin Eichner. medRxiv 11 September 2020.
Collaborative networks enable the rapid establishment of serological assays for SARS-CoV-2 during nationwide lockdown in New Zealand. Reuben McGregor, Alana L. Whitcombe, Campbell R. Sheen, James M. Dickson, Catherine L. Day, Lauren H. Carlton, Prachi Sharma, J. Shaun Lott, Barbara Koch, Julie Bennett, Michael G. Baker, Stephen R. Ritchie, Shivani Fox-Lewis, Susan C. Morpeth, Susan L. Taylor, Sally A. Roberts, Rachel H. Webb, Nicole J. Moreland. PeerJ. 2020 Sep 3;8:e9863, 3 September 2020
COVID-19—a very visible pandemic. Professor David Durrheim, Professor Michael Baker. The Lancet, 396(10248), 8 August 2020.
Successful Elimination of Covid-19 Transmission in New Zealand. Professor Michael Baker, Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Andrew Anglemyer. N Engl J Med 2020; 7 August 2020.
Detecting the re-emergent COVID-19 pandemic after elimination: Modelling study of combined primary care and hospital surveillance. Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Markus Schwehm, Dr Ayesha Verrall, Dr Matthew Parry, Professor Michael Baker, Dr Martin Eichner. N Z Med J (in press).
Public health aspects of the Covid-19 response and opportunities for the post-pandemic era. Professor Nick Wilson, Matt Boyd, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Dr Tim Chambers, Professor Michael Baker. Policy Quarterly 2020;16(3):20-24 August 2020.
Maximizing the probability that the 6-week lock-down in Victoria delivers a COVID-19 free Australia. Professor Tony Blakely, Dr Jason Thompson, Dr Natalie Carvalho, Dr Laxman Bablani, Professor Nick Wilson, Professor Mark Stevenson. Med J Aust 2020; [Preprint, 17 July 2020].
Mass masking: an alternative to a second lockdown in Aotearoa. Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Ling Chan, Dr Sophie Febery, Dr Sally Roberts, Dr Bryan Betty, Professor Michael Baker. N Z Med J 2020;133(1517):8-13. 26 June 2020
Estimating the impact of control measures to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 associated with air travel into a COVID-19-free country: A simulation modelling study – Professor Nick Wilson, Professor Michael Baker, Dr Martin Eichner, medRxiv, 14 June 2020
When can elimination of SARS-CoV-2 infection be assumed? Simulation modelling in a case study island nation – Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Matthew Parry, Dr Ayesha Verrall, Professor Michael Baker, Dr Markus Schwehm, Dr Martin Eichner, medRxiv, 20 May 2020
Detecting the emergent or re-emergent COVID-19 pandemic in a country: Modelling study of combined primary care and hospital surveillance – Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Markus Schwehm, Dr Ayesha J Verrall, Dr Matthew Parry, Professor Michael G Baker, Dr Martin Eichner, medRxiv, 19 May 2020
New Zealand’s COVID-19 elimination strategy – Professor Michael Baker, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig and Dr Ayesha Verrall, Medical Journal of Australia, 19 May 2020
Social responsibility, solidarity, and equity in the time of COVID19 – Associate Professor Angela Ballentyne, Dr Elizabeth Dai, New Zealand Medical School Journal, 30 April 2020

New Zealand’s elimination strategy for the COVID‑19 pandemic and what is required to make it work – Professor Michael Baker, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Dr Ayesha Verrall, Dr Lucy Telfar-Barnard, Professor Nick Wilson, New Zealand Medical Journal, 3 April 2020
Case-fatality estimates for COVID‑19 calculated by using a lag time for fatality – Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Dr Lucy Telfar Barnard, Professor Michael Baker, Emerging Infectious Diseases, early release 13 March 2020
Modelling the potential health impact of the COVID‑19 pandemic on a hypothetical European country – Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Lucy Telfar Barnard, Dr Amanda Kvalsig, Dr Ayesha Verrall, Professor Michael G Baker, Dr Markus Schwehm, MedRxiv, 23 March 2020
Estimating the case fatality risk of COVID‑19 using cases from outside China – Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Dr Lucy Telfar Barnard, Professor Michael Baker, MedRxiv, 15 February 2020

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Reports for New Zealand Ministry of Health

Rapid audit of contact tracing for COVID-19 in New Zealand. Report to the New Zealand Ministry of Health – Dr Ayesha Verrall, 20 April 2020
Potential worse case health impacts from the COVID‑19 Pandemic for New Zealand if eradication fails: Report to the New Zealand Ministry of Health (PDF) – Professor Nick Wilson, 24 March 2020
Potential health impacts from the COVID‑19 pandemic for New Zealand if eradication fails: Report to the New Zealand Ministry of Health (PDF) – Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Lucy Telfar Barnard, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Professor Michael Baker, 23 March 2020
Supporting the COVID‑19 pandemic response: Surveillance and outbreak analytics prepared for the Ministry of Health (PDF) – Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Dr Lucy Telfar Barnard, Dr Lesley Gray, Professor Nick Wilson, Professor Michael Baker, 20 March 2020
Potential preventive interventions for the “Stamp it out” and “Manage it” phase of the COVID‑19 pandemic in New Zealand: Commissioned report for the New Zealand Ministry of Health (PDF) – Professor Michael Baker, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Dr Lucy Telfar Barnard, Dr Lesley Gray, Dr Ayesha Verrall, Professor Nick Wilson, 10 March 2020
Rationale for border control interventions and options to prevent or delay the arrival of COVID‑19 in New Zealand: Final commissioned report for the New Zealand Ministry of Health (PDF) – Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Lucy Telfar Barnard, Professor Michael Baker, 6 March 2020
What New Zealand could potentially offer to selected Pacific Island jurisdictions to help prevent the spread of COVID‑19: Commissioned Preliminary Report for the New Zealand Ministry of Health (PDF) – Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Viliami Puloka, Professor Michael Baker, 6 March 2020

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Public Health Expert blog posts

These blogs includes colleagues from outside of the University of Otago, Wellington (UOW).

Shifting all Isolation/Quarantine Facilities to a Single Air Force Base: The Need for a Critical Analysis. Professor Nick Wilson, Professor Michael Baker, 14 September 2020.
Tax policy as a key health determinant: Reform for the Covid-19 reset. Louise Delany, Associate Professor George Thomson. 7 September 2020.
Upgrade of NZ’s COVID-19 Alert Levels Needed to Help Regain NZ’s Elimination Status. Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Professor Michael Baker. 3 September 2020.
Children and young people and COVID-19: The urgent need for improved guidance in NZ. Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Amanda D’Souza, Professor Michael Baker. 27 August 2020.
NZ’s COVID-19 response compared to selected other jurisdictions: Australia, Taiwan and the United States. Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Jennifer Summers, Dr Andy Anglemyer, Professor Tony Blakely, Professor Michael Baker. 26 August 2020.
Using a fun “Mask Day” at school to promote pandemic protection in the NZ community. Dr Ling Chan, Dr Sophie Febery, Professor Michael Baker, Dr Amanda Klasvig, Professor Nick Wilson. 25 August 2020.
Using the CovidCard to enhance protection from COVID-19 at the NZ border. Dr Tim Chambers, Professor Nick Wilson, Professor Michael Baker, 21 August 2020
NZ’s “Team of 5 million” has achieved the lowest COVID-19 death rate in the OECD – but there are still gaps in our pandemic response – Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Tim Chambers, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Dr Anja Mizdrak, Dr Nhung Nghiem, Dr Jennifer Summers, Professor Michael Baker, 22 July 2020
Weekly deaths declined in NZ’s lockdown – but we still don’t know exactly why – Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Anja Mizdrak, Dr Jennifer Summers, Professor Michael Baker, 10 July, 2020
COVID-19 and the law in Aotearoa NZ – Louise Delany, 6 July 2020
Kiwi public health doc reporting back from Victoria (Australia): “Do quarantine well!” – Professor Tony Blakely, 3 July 2020
Pandemic terminology: getting it right matters for effective risk communication and management – Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Professor Michael Baker, 30 June 2020
Preventing Outbreaks of COVID-19 in NZ Associated with Air Travel from Australia: New Modelling Study of Alternatives to Quarantine – Professor Nick Wilson, Professor Michael Baker, Professor Martin Eichner, 16 June 2020
Five Key Reasons why NZ Should have an Official Inquiry into the Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic – Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Jennifer Summers, Associate Professor George Thomson, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Dr Matt Boyd, Professor Michael Baker, 11 June 2020
When can COVID-19 be declared eliminated from NZ? New modelling study – Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Matthew Parry, Dr Ayesha Verrall, Professor Michael Baker, Professor Martin Eichler, 25 May 2020
Why a “mouth and nose” lockdown with masks might help avoid a “full body” lockdown at home - Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Sophie Febery, Dr Ling Chan, Dr Jennifer Summers, Professor Michael Baker, 20 May 2020
The strong case for mask requirements in public transportation and border control settings in NZ’s current COVID-19 pandemic context - Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Sophie Febery, Dr Ling Chan, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Professor Michael Baker, 11 May 2020
The need for a robust scientific definition for the elimination of COVID-19 from New Zealand - Professor Michael Baker, Professor Nick Wilson, Professor Shaun Hendy, Professor David Skegg, 5 May 2020
What we would like to see on the Ministry of Health’s website to better inform progress on Covid-19 elimination – Gordon Purdie, Professor Nick Wilson, Professor Michael Baker, 2 May 2020
Be careful what you wish for: ICU is no panacea – Associate Professor Angela Ballentyne, Professor Wendy Rogers, Prof Vikki Entwhistle, Dr Cindy Towns – 24 April 2020
Why New Zealand should consider adopting “mass masking” as an additional step to speed elimination of the COVID‑19 pandemic – Dr Ling Chan, Dr Sophie Febery, 22 April 2020
Why eliminating COVID‑19 is critical: Since more waves of infection, hospitalisations and deaths are inevitable for other countries until a vaccine arrives – Professor Rod Jackson, 19 April 2020
Science-informed policy: Considerations in support of judicious, circumspect changes to Aotearoa/NZ alert levels during the COVID-19 pandemic – Professor John D. Potter, 18 April 2020
Covid recovery or sustainable transformation? – Associate Professor Ralph Chapman, Dr Paul Blaschke, 17 April 2020
We need rapid response on digital solutions to help eliminate COVID‑19 from New Zealand – Dr Tim Chambers, Professor Nick Wilson, Professor Michael Baker, 15 April 2020
Changes in mobility in response to the COVID‑19 pandemic: New Zealand vs other countries and the stories it suggests – Dr Matt Boyd, Professor Michael Baker, Professor Nick Wilson, 12 April 2020
COVID‑19 and Māori health – when equity is more than a word – Dr Paula King, Dr Donna Cormack, Dr Melissa McLeod, Associate Professor Ricci Harris, Dr Jason Gurney, 10 April 2020
ICU triage: How many lives or whose lives? – Associate Professor Angela Ballentyne, 7 April 2020
Testing for COVID‑19 in New Zealand to achieve the elimination goal – Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Ayesha Verrall, Len Cook, Alistair Gray, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Professor Michael Baker, 6 April 2020
From across the Ditch: How Australia has to decide on the least worst option for COVID‑19 – Professor Tony Blakely, 4 April 2020
Might a ‘Coasean’ social contract mitigate overall societal harm from COVID‑19? – Brian Williamson, Professor Nick Wilson, 3 April 2020
Avoidable hospitalisations: Helping our health system get through COVID‑19 – Associate Professor George Thomson, Louise Delany, Professor Nick Wilson, 25 March 2020
The maths and ethics of minimising COVID‑19 deaths in New Zealand – Professor Tony Blakely, Professor Michael Baker, Professor Nick Wilson, 23 March 2020
Getting through together: Ethical values for a pandemic – Dr Ruth Cunningham, Professor Charlotte Paul, Associate Professor Andrew Moore, 14 February 2020
New Zealand should prepare for a potentially severe global coronavirus pandemic – Professor Nick Wilson, Professor Michael Baker, 6 February 2020

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Opinion pieces, including The Conversation

6 months after New Zealand’s first COVID-19 case, it’s time for a more strategic approach. Professor Michael Baker, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Professor Nick Wilson, The Conversation, 26 August 2020.
Masking the outbreak: Despite New Zealand’s growing COVID-19 cases, there are more ways to get back to elimination faster. Professor Nick Wilson, Dr Amanada Kvalsvig, Professor Michael Baker. The Conversation 13 August 2020.
100 days without COVID-19: how New Zealand got rid of a virus that keeps spreading across the world. Professor Michael Baker, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Professor Nick Wilson. The Conversation., 12 August 2020.
'It's not going to be easy': experts on what Australia must do to curb Covid's spread. Professor Tony Blakely, Professor Michael Baker, Professor Nick Wilson. The Guardian 4 August 2020.
What next for New Zealand in its post-COVID-19 era? Professor Nick Wilson, Professor Michael Baker. East Asia Forum, 27 July 2020
Five ways New Zealand can keep Covid-19 cases at zero – Professor Michael Baker, Professor Nick Wilson. Guardian, 8 June 2020
Elimination: What New Zealand’s coronavirus response can teach the world – Professor Michael Baker, Professor Nick Wilson, Guardian, 10 April 2020
Coronavirus: Five reasons why we must fight, and how it could make New Zealand better – Professor Michael Baker, Professor Nick Wilson, Stuff, 4 April 2020
Self-isolating for coronavirus is impossible for tens of thousands of New Zealanders – unless we help them fast – Clare Aspinall, The Conversation, 27 March 2020
‘Overjoyed’: A leading health expert on New Zealand’s coronavirus shutdown, and the challenging weeks ahead – Professor Michael Baker, The Conversation, 24 March 2020
Why New Zealand needs to continue decisive action to contain coronavirus – Professor Michael Baker, Professor Nick Wilson, The Conversation, 20 March 2020
New Zealand must learn lessons from China’s success in managing COVID‑19 – Dr Ayesha Verrall, Stuff, 9 March 2020
COVID-19 has now reached New Zealand. How prepared is it to deal with a pandemic? – Professor Michael Baker, Professor Nick Wilson, The Conversation, 4 March 2020
What does the coronavirus epidemic mean for New Zealand? – Professor Michael Baker, Sunday Star Times, 29 January 2020

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Live Q and A with Dr Ayesha Verrall

TVNZ Q + A with Jack Tame

Facebook live Q & A (in conjunction with Newsroom)

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Live Q and A with Professor Michael Baker

Radio New Zealand Sunday Morning programme

Radio New Zealand Nights programme

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Open talks / webinars

The elimination strategy for responding to pandemics: the New Zealand experience. Professor Michael Baker, Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Science, Cambridge University, Future pandemics series. 14 September
Covid-19 unmasked: experts discuss coronavirus. Professor Michael Baker, Professor David Murdoch, Professor Miguel Quinones-Mateu, Dr Jemma Geoghegan, Professor Vernon Ward. RNZ / NZ International Science Festival, 6 August 2020.
COVID-19 elimination in New Zealand: Could it work in the UK? – Professor Michael Baker, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine ‘Let’s talk Covid-19 series’, 9 July 2020
Ethical pandemic control – Dr Jim Thomas, 7 April 2020
The emerging coronavirus epidemic – protecting our communities and ourselves – Professor Michael Baker, Professor Raina MacIntyre, Professor Nick Wilson, 12 February 2020
Why do we still need to know about the 1918 influenza pandemic? – Professor Geoffrey Rice, 7 February 2017 (still very useful)

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Selection of major media stories

Southern hemisphere has record low flu cases amid Covid lockdowns. Professor Michael Baker, The Guardian, 17 September 2020
Patrick Gower: On Lockdown. Professor Michael Baker, Professor Miguel Quinones-Mateu, Dr Jemma Geoghegan, Associate Professor James Ussher. TV Three, 31st August 2020
Return of covid-19 to New Zealand shows that no one can relax. Professor Michael Baker, Dr Amanda Kvalsvig New Scientist, 18 August 2020
We felt we had beaten it’: New Zealand’s race to eliminate the coronavirus again – Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Nature, 14 August 2020
New Zealand Beat the Virus Once. Can It Do It Again? Professor Michael Baker, New York Times, 13 August 2020
New Zealand suspects ‘some failure at the border’ after COVID-19 returns – Professor Nick Wilson, Science Magazine, 12 August 2020
China’s new Covid-19 cluster in Dalian linked to cases in 9 other cities. Professor Michael Baker, South China Morning Post, 28 July 2020
Could Australia eliminate COVID-19 like NZ and how would it work? Professor Michael Baker, The Age/Sydney Morning Herald, July 22, 2020
Why New Zealand decided to go for full elimination of the coronavirus. Professor Michael Baker, New Scientist, 23 June 2020
The UK has done everything that NZ had done, but in reverse. Professor Michael Baker, BBC 2 with Phil Vine, 15 June, 2020
What can the UK learn from New Zealand’s successes with COVID-19 – Professor Michael Baker, BBC Today, 10 June 2020
A novel enemy: the long road to victory against coronavirus – Professor Michael Baker, Stuff, 10 June 2020
Winter is coming: Health experts are worried about an uptick of coronavirus cases in the Southern Hemisphere – Professor Michael Baker, CNBC, 1 June 2020
Stay home, stay safe, be kind: What New Zealand can teach the world about eliminating COVID-19 – Professor Michael Baker, Democracy Now, 26 May 2020
Doc to doc: Coronavirus conversation - Dr Ayesha Verrall, NBC, 20 May 2020
How New Zealand put coronavirus on the brink of elimination – Professor Michael Baker, Wired (UK), 11 May 2020
New Zealand eliminates COVID-19 – Professor Michael Baker, The Lancet, 9 May 2020
COVID-19 elimination ‘all about good data’ – Professor Nick Wilson, RNZ 7 May 2020
How New Zealand got its Coronavirus cases down to zero in seven weeks – Professor Michael Baker, Vice News (USA), 5 May 2020
With virus under control, Australia and New Zealand may form a travel 'bubble' – Professor Michael Baker, The Washington Post, 4 May 2020
Long read: NZ wasn’t ready for a pandemic – Professor Nick Wilson, Prof Michael Baker, Newsroom, 29 April 2020
New Zealand says it has eliminated Coronavirus – Professor Michael Baker, CNN, 28 April 2020
Learning from New Zealand’s “Unite Against COVID-19” response – Interview with former NZ PM Helen Clark and Professor Michael Baker, Medyascope (Turkey), 27 April 2020
Flatttery and foot dragging: China’s influence over the WHO under scrutiny – Professor Michael Baker, The Globe and Mail (Toronto) 25 April 2020
The story behind the doctor pushing for better Covid-19 contact tracing – Dr Ayesha Verrall, Stuff 25 April 2020
Vanquish the Virus? Australia and New Zealand Aim to Show the Way – Professor Michael Baker, The New York Times, 24 April 2020
Did other countries do better at stopping coronavirus? | Good Morning Britain – Professor Michael Baker, 22 April 2020
Coronavirus: How New Zealand relied on science and empathy – Professor Michael Baker 21, BBC News, April 2020
It wasn't planned but Australia is on the verge of an exciting possibility – Professor Michael Baker, The Sydney Morning Herald, 18 April 2020
This country says it’s on course to wipe out Covid-19 – Prof Michael Baker, Bloomberg, 17 April 2020
Otago researchers making major contribution to COVID‑19 response – Associate Professor Jo-ann Stanton, Professor Michael Baker, Dr Lesley Gray, Media Release, 17 April 2020
New Zealand isn’t just flattening the curve. It’s squashing it. – Professor Michael Baker, The Washington Post, 7 April 2020
Man for this moment – Professor Michael Baker, Stuff, 4 April 2020
New Zealand must urgently build contact tracing for COVID‑19 to make nationwide lockdown worthwhile, infectious diseases expert says – Dr Ayesha Verrall, Media Release, 24 March 2020

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Staff assisting the Ministry of Health

Members of advisory group

Professor Michael Baker is a member of the COVID‑19 Technical Advisory Group (TAG).
Professor Nick Wilson contributed to the Ministry of Health’s Epidemiology Technical Advisory Group.