Contact Details
University Links
- Position
- Honorary Research Professor
- Department
- Department of Public Health (Wellington)
- Qualifications
- MB ChB MPH(Otago) PhD FAFPHM
- Research summary
- Socio-economic determinants of health
Research
Tony is an epidemiologist. His research covers a range of topic areas intersecting with methodological advancements.
Since 2010, he directs the HRC-funded Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme (BODE3). This programme builds infrastructure (e.g. linked routine datasets) and capacity (e.g. epidemiological and economic decision modelling) to rapidly assess the health impact and cost effectiveness of a range of preventative and cancer control interventions – and examine their equity impacts. In 2016-2021 BODE3 is modelling a range of preventive interventions, under three objectives:
- Dietary and physical activity interventions
- Interventions stratified by absolute CVD risk and
- Comparing the impact of multiple interventions on timing of health gains and costs (savings), productivity and welfare cost implications, and morbidity impacts – especially around the retirement age.
Tony initiated and implemented the New Zealand Census-Mortality Study (NZCMS) in the late 1990s, a pioneering study linking the national censuses with mortality data to allow monitoring and research on ethnic and socio-economic inequalities and the contribution of smoking to mortality (the NZ census periodically includes smoking). He has also led the parallel study, CancerTrends, that links census and cancer registration data to allow cancer incidence and survival studies. Built around these two studies, Tony directed the Health Inequalities Research Programme from 2004 to 2010, a programme that included a panel study of 20,000 adults followed up for eight years (Survey of Family, Income and Employment, SoFIE-Health), and a series of neighbourhoods research projects.
Tony also has research interests in nutrition (e.g. a large randomised trial of price discounts and personalised education – the SHOP study) and health services. Cutting across all Tony’s research is a strong focus and interest in epidemiological and quantitative research methodologies (e.g. causal mediation analysis, simulation modelling). He teaches short courses in epidemiological methods. Tony has published approximately 300 peer reviewed journal articles. As of 2016, Tony also holds an appointment at the Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Melbourne University.
Publications
Blakely, T., McKenzie, S., & Carter, K. (2013). Misclassification of the mediator matters when estimating indirect effects. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 67, 458-466. doi: 10.1136/jech-2012-201813 Journal - Research Article
Tobias, M., Blakely, T., Matheson, D., Rasanathan, K., & Atkinson, J. (2009). Changing trends in indigenous inequalities in mortality: Lessons from New Zealand. International Journal of Epidemiology, 38(6), 1711-1722. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyp156 Journal - Research Article
Gunasekara, F. I., Carter, K., & Blakely, T. (2011). Change in income and change in self-rated health: Systematic review of studies using repeated measures to control for confounding bias. Social Science & Medicine, 72(2), 193-201. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2010.10.029 Journal - Research Article
Ni Mhurchu, C., Blakely, T., Jiang, Y., Eyles, H. C., & Rodgers, A. (2010). Effects of price discounts and tailored nutrition education on supermarket purchases: A randomized controlled trial. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 91(3), 736-747. doi: 10.3945/ajcn.2009.28742 Journal - Research Article
Blakely, T., Tobias, M., & Atkinson, J. (2008). Inequalities in mortality during and after restructuring of the New Zealand economy: Repeated cohort studies. BMJ, 336(7640), 371-375. doi: 10.1136/bmj.39455.596181.25 Journal - Research Article