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Friday 4 June 2021 5:10pm

Professor Jim Mann, EDOR Co-Director and Director of the Healthier Lives–He Oranga Hauora National Science Challenge (HLNSC), along with EDOR and HLNSC member Professor Jeremy Krebs, have contributed to a ground-breaking paper on cardiovascular risk prediction, which has been published in the prestigious medical journal The Lancet.

Led by Professor Rod Jackson at the University of Auckland, the study used the high level of type 2 diabetes screening carried out in NZ (approximately 90% of eligible adults were screened for diabetes by 2016) to develop a new cardiovascular risk prediction equation.

The Lancet publication shows that cardiovascular risk prediction equations developed before widespread diabetes screening significantly overestimated cardiovascular risk in many screen-detected type 2 diabetes patients.  The team went on to develop the world's first cardiovascular risk prediction equations in a contemporary diabetes population, where there is almost universal diabetes screening.

The new cardiovascular risk equations have significantly improved the ability to differentiate between high-risk and low-risk patients, compared with the previous version. This will help prevent the unnecessary (and costly) use of medications in those who don't actually need them.

Read the Lancet paper

Cardiovascular risk prediction in type 2 diabetes before and after widespread screening: a derivation and validation study. Romana Pylypchuk, Sue Wells, Andrew Kerr, Katrina Poppe, Matire Harwood, Suneela Mehta, Corina Grey, Billy P Wu, Vanessa Selak, Paul L Drury, Wing Cheuk Chan, Brandon Orr-Walker, Rinki Murphy, Jim Mann, Jeremy D Krebs, Jinfeng Zhao, Rod Jackson. The Lancet, 2 June, 2021.

Read more about the study

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