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Commentary:

Over the past two elections, the Maungakiekie electorate has proven to be an “extraordinary” bellwether seat, accurately reflecting the mood of the nation.

In 2020, when Labour won 50% of the national vote, a near-identical 50.3% of Maungakiekie’s voters backed the party. Three years later, when Labour’s vote plunged to 26.9%, so too did Maungakiekie’s support for the party, falling to just 27.1%.

Dr Michael Swanson spoke to The Guardian's Eva Corlett about it for this piece:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/31/nz-election-2026-who-is-bellwether-electorate-picking-as-winner

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