Between 2022–2024, the C3 team used age-period-cohort models to project future cancer numbers and incidence rates in Aotearoa New Zealand out to 2040–44 for total cancer, total cancer by ethnicity, and for specific cancers.
We sought to understand changes in the number of cancers over time (also affected by changes in population size and age distribution), and any underlying changes in cancer incidence (influenced by ongoing trends in cancer risk factors).
Although projections of cancer incidence are inherently uncertain and require cautious interpretation, they are a commonly applied tool useful for allocation of resources and understanding the potential impact of cancer prevention interventions. The drivers of anticipated changes in the number of future cancer cases are changes in cancer risk (or detection), and changes in population growth and ageing. Age-period-cohort modelling seeks to project observed trends into the future, thus accounting for trends in existing risk factors such as tobacco use and obesity.
Cancer impact in context
Cancer is a leading cause of death globally and in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ), and the number of cancers is expected to further increase as the population ages. Aside from the incalculable human cost associated with a substantial rise in the number of new cancer patients, additional pressures will be also placed on government funded cancer services (from diagnosis through to treatment), which are already pressed to meet current demand. Cancer care is a major contributor to health system costs, accounting for 9% of the total NZ public health expenditure from 2007–14.
Visit our cancer incidence projection publication in OUR Archive